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@spgoals7
Football fan writing on finance in football/sport. Have worked in banking, venture capital and most recently as a CFO. Substack:
United have switched to lower cost debt which could limit headline interest cost increases. As previously discussed, more cash = more flexibility to do deals. +ve/-ve financial risks haven't changed. The march to being self-funded again continues, its critical for a new stadium. bit.ly/4e6huXQ
#MUFC full interim report out. £110mn repayment on credit facility post year end. £250mn available going into the summer (consistent with my forecasts). £360mn net transfer fees owed, £209mn due in a yr. Likely fall by next results. Cash a constraint but easing. £2.7mn profit on Hojlund sale.
CONFIRMED: Spurs' underlying loss significantly worsened in '24/25 24/25 pre-tax losses at £121mn. Non-wage operating costs up £42m, roughly half of the worsening losses. Last week's piece highlighting this bit.ly/4bIXRCK Underlying wage bill up 12% too. www.tottenhamhotspur.com/media/qopovw...
#MUFC have the same total wage bill as Arsenal, despite not being in the Champions League. Food for thought. Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than: Atletico Madrid Dortmund Inter Milan Juventus AC Milan
75% of the Premier League is now in the Deloitte Money League i.e. top 30 revenue generators in the world. The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.
🔴⚪ #FCBayern are moving up the revenue league 🔴⚪ '24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn. Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships. EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
INEOS’ cuts means #MUFC can cover near term transfer debts. £80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward. Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning. If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand. Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
#MUFC 4Q25 results FIRST TAKE: guidance in-line with my expectations, targeting a ‘25/26 Premier league finish of 6/7th, and will be guiding factor in any decision surrounding the first team coach. Full report: bit.ly/42sY216
Chelsea's heady £300mn from player sales this summer. But they still don’t have a front-of-shirt sponsor and most players they could generate a meaningful profit from are now in their first team squad. #CFC hitting UEFA’s €5mn loss target in 2026/27 feels increasingly tricky. Report: bit.ly/3JKfpUD
Nottingham Forest continue to challenge the established elite. They’ve dug deep financially, and Elanga’s sales was probably crucial to complying UEFA’s financial regulations. They are showing ambition but continue to tread the financial tightrope for UEFA compliance. Report: bit.ly/47oiGTy
Arsenal’s £200mn Summer net spend was partly facilitated by allowing expensive players to leave for free and loans. They are as close as ever to UEFA’s 70% Squad Cost target. If trophies elude #AFC this season, Berta’s deal making will be tested so they can go again. Report: bit.ly/3JKR9BM
#AVFC player sales should enable UEFA financial compliance for '25/26 (losses under €5mn) and register new signings for Europa League. But a high squad cost ratio (c.87%) still needs work. More big sales likely needed to make up the shortfall. Full report: bit.ly/45V0Wgh
A New Old Trafford financing blueprint – unite the Club, Fans and the Community bit.ly/47bp1BN I see a world where the Club can fund a stadium and increase the no. of tickets for regular matchgoers, allow them to partially fund and guide stadium development and leverage lucrative Hospitality seats
Nkunku and Jackson have got to go, but clubs may just say no bit.ly/4fwicwA #CFC have freed up £55mn UCL List A headroom but need another £32.5mn to register new signings. Garnacho means they probably need £50n Nkunku+Jackson is c.£43mn of that. But thereafter we may see some unhappy players.
Full Omar Berrada interview in United We Stand is worth and #MUFC fans' time. Read it to make up your own mind on him. Can subscribe here: uwsonline.com/subscribe.php Interesting stuff on Amorim, financial model & direction from here Reminder chart on EBITDA (profit) margin and free cash flow below
Appreciate the kind words, Nick. It’s definitely tough at the moment and agree, not easy to see many of the things happening at the moment. Reposting the charts for you here!
🏟️🏦📉📈INEOS own MUFC shares: United now have a further vehicle for to fund a new stadium, on better than market terms. INEOS owned shares give more flexibility for future full ownership options without harming MUFC. Working capital buffer less likely given £282mn losses in 4 years.
A potentially distressing #MUFC story... Years of mismanagement, SJR plugging cash gap, fans paying the price #StopExploitingLoyalty W/o Jim’s $100mn by year end they’d be short on cash So need to pull every lever but continued poor on pitch performance means they can't use sponsorships like before
3 takeaways from #MUFC game 1. Still phase 1 of squad overhaul, any coach still dealing with that. There will be pain before gain. 2. Amorim is an out and out football person, media duties comment is Mourinho-esque. On the football leadership to back him on it. 3. Not a fan of Ed Sheeran
Revenues... More tickets, Food & Beverage, better Hospitality and sponsorships. 19k more seats could mean c.£25mn matchday revs. Emirates deal is £50mn/yr until 2028 and incl. Shirt & Stadium rights. If it increases by £10mn/ yr (like before) only another £4mn rev/yr is needed cover interest costs.
PSR/FSR… Costs to build or develop stadiums don't go into P&L compliance but if liabilities (debts) are greater than assets then UEFA need to see an improving balance sheet position annually. This means more profit is needed - for #Arsenal not to be inhibited they need £40mn+ /yr from the expansion.
What might it cost? “Cost per seat” could be up to £20k (Spurs, Everton and #MUFC yardsticks) implying total costs of £386mn. Arsenal financials are sound and the Kroenke’s experience in stadium development could see better interest rates for debt funding (10% interest rate = £38.6mn interest cost)
Matchday: Only rev stream with growth accelerate over the last 5 years (+3% pa 19-24 vs. +5% 2014-19), primarily thanks to Spurs’ nearly tripling match day revenue due to their new stadium as well as more on-pitch success for all teams (incl. Europe) meaning more home matches to sell tickets for.
Commercial: somewhat a derivative of tv deals (more eyeballs, the more attractive sponsoring a club becomes) commercial has been the biggest driver of growth in the last 5 years but growth there is also slowing (+8% pa 19-24 vs. +11% 2014-19).
Broadcasting revenue: #EPL TV deals grew +13% pa 2007 to 2019. The last domestic deal saw rev/yr grow just +1% pa. International revs arguably still has some room to grow but with limitations due to international consumer pricing models (AUS/ US).
For the 9 ever present teams over the last decade, revs have nearly doubled from £2.2bn to £4.1bn (as of summer ’23). The boon was driven by TV deals (Broadcasting revs £1.8bn vs. £1bn) and commercial success (£1.6bn vs. £730mn). But that growth has slowed from 10% pa to 4% pa over the last decade.