Sreedev Krishnakumar

@sreedevkkumar

Data journalist from India. Works at Hindustan Times. Previously with Moneycontrol. Other bylines: The Hindu, The Print, The Citizen and LiveWire

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· 5d

Nvidia is now the world’s most valuable company. Wall Street is betting its AI chips can “defy the laws of finance”. The bigger bet is on hyperscalers spending at unprecedented scale. Whether the maths adds up may be the biggest wager in the global economy. Today’s Number Theory looks at the numbers

The other I in AI: cost of investment

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

Nvidia today is the world’s most valuable company by market cap. A Financial Times story published yesterday had the following headline: Wall Street giants bet Nvidia’s AI chips will defy the laws of finance. A generational disruption to technology is also bringing a generational change, and perhaps a massive disruption to the global financial system. And that is the hyperscaler story playing out right now. Whether the math will add up is the biggest bet in the global economy.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· 6d

Musk, world’s richest migrant, thinks Europe is drowning in illegal migration, backs Trump’s crackdown in US. The veracity of his claims notwithstanding, migration is now a heated subject. Meanwhile, China, is now a superpower without having much in-migration. Here's a look at the numbers.

Migration’s economics and politics in US, Europe and China

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and an immigrant to America, believes that Europe is a cesspool of illegal migration and the UK is on the brink of a civil war because of it. Back home, he supported President Donald Trump’s tough stance on illegal migration but opposes his restrictive policies on the migration of high-skilled workers. The veracity of Musk’s claims notwithstanding, Europe continues to debate migration, as was seen during the dramatic episode of thousands of Moroccans illegally crossing into Spanish territory of Ceuta recently, only to be pushed back. All of this is happening as the world’s other economic super-power, China, has achieved economic might without having to allow a significant number of in-migrants. The numbers are worth looking at in detail.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· 7d

The Union Cabinet recently approved the ₹84000-crore Samudra Manthan scheme to boost India’s offshore petroleum production. In today’s HT, Shreya Khandelwal and I, in the 2nd part of a 2-part series on India's energy security, explain why just trying to secure more oil isn't enough.

Part 2: India's energy security goes beyond producing more oil

Byline: Sreedev Krishnakumar and Shreya Khandelwal

The first part of this series looked at numbers on India’s production and trade of petroleum and explained the importance of the new policy by the union cabinet to boost domestic petroleum production in India. The second part will bring in other parts of India’s energy economy to explain why energy security is more than just securing petroleum supplies.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· 16d

#Trump admin may impose a $100K fee on #OPT (the pathway foreign grads use to work in the US after graduating). What has been the importance of OPT for foreign students in the US? How will this impact Indian students in the US? Today's HT Number Theory explores in detail.

$100,000 OPT fee plan is bad news for Indian students and the US

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

The Donald Trump administration in the US is considering a $100,000 fee tied to Optional Practical Training (OPT), which allows foreign graduates to work temporarily in the US after completing their degrees. The proposal follows an appeals court setback to a similar H-1B levy. Unlike direct overseas H-1B recruitment, OPT is the route many large US employers use to hire foreign graduates from American universities before later sponsoring them for work visas. What has been the importance of OPT for foreign students in the US? What is the potential impact of the proposal on Indian students? How will this impact Indian students in the US?

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jul 14

Part 1 of this 2-part series asked whether World Cup expansion has widened representation beyond traditional powers. Part 2 turns to the squads, tracing the surge in foreign-born players and what it reveals about the movement of footballing talent pool beyond the pitch. #FIFA #WorldCup #Football

More flags than ever, but the same football factories

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

The first part of this two-part series explored whether the expansion of the FIFA World Cup has improved the representation of teams beyond the traditional footballing powers—it has, but only in the tournament’s early stages. This part examines the geographical diversity within World Cup squads as the number of foreign-born players has surged, and what this reveals about the movement of the footballing talent pool beyond the pitch.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jul 13

The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup is the biggest yet. But has expansion actually made it more globalised? Part 1 of HT's new 2-part data story series on the #WorldCup kicked off today examines whether greater geographic diversity also mean greater competitiveness. www.hindustantimes.com/editors-pick...

Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jul 6

In the third and final part of our three-part special data story series on US@250, we look at whether the recent push for a strategic Indo-US alliance a friendship in America's winter. www.hindustantimes.com/editors-pick...

India and US@250: A friendship in America’s winter?

By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar

Would India be better off than today if it had chosen the American camp at the time of its independence? This is one of the most animated counterfactuals often posed in India. Counterfactuals and those who pose them have the luxury of ignoring Marx’s famous dictum. “Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past,” he wrote. India, in the immediate aftermath of its independence was trying to do pretty much what Marx described. Historian Srinath Raghavan’s tour de force of a book, The Most Dangerous Place: A History of the United States in South Asia, is a must read for the interested reader to understand this. History aside, the present requires asking a more pertinent question. What does India stand to gain from its recent embrace of the US as a strategic ally?

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jul 4

Part two of our special US@250 series, in the paper today, examines how America’s political divisions have been reshaped, and why one particular fault line increasingly holds the key to the puzzle. www.hindustantimes.com/editors-pick...

US@250: Fighting a cold civil war

By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar

America, almost everybody agrees, is a bitterly divided country today. History tells us that polarisation is not new to the American people. Just short of its centenary, the country fought a civil war in 1861, which was mainly about the abolition of slavery. Almost a century after the civil war, civil rights movements in the US had to fight for ensuring not just freedom but also dignity for the African American people in the country. Violence has often accompanied such political disagreements. That the US is one of the most gun-wielding societies does not help. Having said all this, there is a case to be made that the fissures in US@250 are very different from what they have been in the past.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jul 3

HT data team today launched a 3-part series on what the US looks like at 250 to the world, to its own people, and to India. As we paraphrase Hagrid in the first part, it is not every day that a global superpower turns 250 and remains one. Today's story talks about how US@250 is leveraged at the top.

US@250: Leveraged at the top

By Roshan Kishore, Abhishek Jha and Sreedev Krishnakumar

On July 4, 1776, 56 delegates signed the Declaration of Independence at what is now known as Independence Hall in Philadelphia. July 4 has since been celebrated as Independence Day in the US. July 4, 2026 marks 250 years of the US. To paraphrase Hagrid from the first Harry Potter film, it is not every day that a global super power turns 250 and is still a super power. The only other country which can claim to have had a global influence like the US is its erstwhile coloniser Great Britain. The latter started losing its global influence by the time the First World War ended. What is the US like, to the world, its people and India, at its 250th? This is what this three-part series will try to answer with numbers.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jun 23

10 years since Brexit referendum, UK continues to count its economics costs and PMs. Starmer is now the 6th PM since Brexit who have stepped down without completing their term. The UK faces a reality check like none other in its history. Today's HT Number Theory attempts to put things in perspective

UK continues to count its economic losses, and PMs

By Sreedev Krishnakumar and Roshan Kishore

On 23 June 2016, the UK shocked itself by voting in favour of an exit from the European Union in a referendum. Since then, the country has seen the wrong kind of numbers increase . The UK’s economy has stagnated and its politics has mutated. With Keir Starmer becoming the seventh consecutive prime minister to quit office without completing a full term, 10 years since that day—six of the seven quit post-Brexit—the UK faces a reality check like none other in its history. Here are three charts that put things in perspective.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Jun 22

New governments of Kerala and Tamil Nadu have put state finances back in spotlight. With states losing some fiscal autonomy to GST while welfare spending rise, their ability to mobilise own revenue matters more than ever. We analysed how major states fare in revenue mobilisation using data from CAG.

How good are major states in raising taxes?
By Shreya Khandelwal and Sreedev Krishnakumar

Two states-- Kerala and Tamil Nadu -- that elected new governments in the latest election cycle have presented White Papers on their fiscal health, or lack thereof. State finances have increasingly emerged as a critical nerve of India’s overall fiscal health. States have lost some fiscal autonomy after the roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and they are also rolling out more and more populist schemes to win elections. This has made states’ ability to mobilise revenue more important than ever. HT analysed the revenue mobilisation performance of India’s major states using a recently released report by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG), which provides fiscal data from 2015-16 to 2024-25. Here are three key takeaways from the analysis.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 29

India needs more capital flows now more than ever and FDI is central to that imperative. Has the partial easing of PN3 rules reopened the case for Chinese FDI? Is Chinese capital a risk to be kept out, or a tool that can create higher capital flows and lower deficit? Here's what the data shows.

Is there such a thing as Chinese FDI gravy train?

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

India needs more capital flows now more than ever. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an important component of this imperative. Can being more liberal towards Chinese FDI solve this challenge? India’s partial easing of Press Note 3 (PN3) regulations earlier this year has reopened this debate. Is Chinese capital a risk to be kept out, or a tool that can reduce dependence on Chinese goods and kill two birds with the same stone: higher capital flows and lower trade deficit? Here is what the data shows.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 23

With rupee inching closer to 100 per USD mark, there is a lot being said about the currency right now. In today's HT, I unpacked the current slump in INR from a historical perspective, and distilled the good, the bad and the ugly of this churn. Read on HT app: www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/u...

Unraveling the good, bad and ugly of rupee’s recent slump
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

With the rupee at the cusp of hitting 100 against a dollar, everybody is interested in, and has, a view on the exchange rate right now. Views and predictions aside, how does the situation look like, historically speaking? HT has looked at the numbers to distil the good (there is), the bad and the ugly of the current churn in the foreign exchange markets right now. Let us look at them one by one.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 19

As of Monday, Sensex is down 12% YTD, but the fall is not just about the West Asia crisis. FIIs have been selling Indian equities in most months since late 2024. And if DIIs weren't cushioning the blow, things would have been worse for Indian markets. Here's a closer look at this.

India's equity market story could have been worse
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

India’s benchmark equity market index, BSE Sensex is down nearly 12% on a year-to-date basis. The bearish sentiment is not just a reflection of the ongoing geo-economic turbulence because of the ongoing war in West Asia. And an HT analysis shows that things would have much worse if not for the domestic savings being channelised into the markets as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to sell.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 14

Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday for perhaps the most important visit of his second presidency. While his rhetoric on protectionism to revive the US economy remains the same, the world and China have both changed much since his last visit. @roshankishore.bsky.social and I took a closer look.

The Sino-US dynamic: Trade, war, possible peace

By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar

US President Donald Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday for what is perhaps the most important visit of his second presidency. Trump last visited China in 2017 and this is the first in-person bilateral between the top leaders of the US and China. Trump’s rhetoric on protectionism to revive the US economy has not changed since his first term, but this meeting is happening in a very different economic and geo-political context. Here’s why:

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 12

PM Modi’s call to use fuel judiciously, avoid gold purchases and cut foreign travel signals that the economic pain from the West Asia war may persist. With state polls over, mitigation is likely to top the agenda. We looked at India’s response, global comparisons and the challenges ahead.

India’s reckoning with the war’s economic cost begins

By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked people to use petrol-diesel judiciously and not buy gold or undertake foreign trips on Sunday, he was conveying a clear message: the economic pain of the ongoing war in West Asia is not going away anytime soon and the economy will have to make adjustments to cope with the fallout. Now that the state election cycle is over, this mitigation is likely to be top priority for the government.

How has India fared so far in dealing with the war’s economic costs? How does it compare with other countries? What about the challenges that lie ahead? Will the adjustments and mitigation strategy bring economic pain? Here is what the data shows.

(Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)

Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 11

The 2026 local elections were Labour’s first big test under Keir Starmer, and the verdict was brutal. Reform, Greens and Lib Dems gained ground at the cost of Labour and Tories. Today’s HT Number Theory looks at what this means for politics in the UK.

Labour staring at the end of the road in UK?
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

The 2026 local elections were the first large-scale test of Keir Starmer’s Labour government, and the verdict was brutal. Across 136 English councils where elections took place, Labour was left controlling just 28. Reforms won 14 councils, the Liberal Democrats 15, the Conservatives 9 and the Greens 5, while most councils ended up with no overall control. The wider picture was no kinder to Labour: it suffered heavy losses in England, was routed in Wales and lost ground in Scotland. Here’s a closer look at what these results mean for politics in the UK.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 7

The National Crime Records Bureau released the Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India 2024 report yesterday. Here are some findings: - Suicides fell marginally to 170,746 in 2024 from 171,418 in 2023, with the suicide rate easing from 12.3 to 12.2 per lakh population. (1/n)

Number of suicides in ’24 22.7% higher than in 2019
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

For every 100 people who died in accidents in India in 2024, 36.5 died by suicide. This ratio is lower than 38.6 in 2023 and the Covid-era peak of more than 40 in 2020 and 2021. The latest decline, however, does not mean India’s suicide burden has returned to its pre-pandemic level.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 6

Vijay's TVK have broken the DMK-AIADMK duopoly in Tamil Nadu. What worked for the actor-turned-politician? One factor could be having a candidate pool closer to voters’ age profile than the older parties. We scraped data from affidavits of candidates from major parties to explore this further.

Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 5

TVK’s stunning debut in Tamil Nadu is this election cycle's biggest story. Vijay’s party has emerged as the single largest with 107 seats (short of the 118 needed for a majority however). What explains this result? @roshankishore.bsky.social, Abhishek Jha and I looked at the numbers here s.42l.fr/tn

Numbers behind TN's political earthquake
By Roshan Kishore, Sreedev Krishnakumar and Abhishek Jha

The most shocking election result in this cycle has come from Tamil Nadu, the largest state in south India and the fifth largest in terms of number of Lok Sabha MPs among states. The political debutant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) formed by the film star Vijay has finished first in the state with XXX MLAs leaving behind the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) led alliances. To be sure, the TVK has still fallen short of the halfway mark in the assembly of 234 and government formation will take some post-poll understanding. How does one explain this result? Here are four key data points which matter.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 5

The second one uses region-wise data to show minority-significant districts were key to UDF's big win in the state, making it clear that the consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes paved their way to getting 100+ seats. www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/u... (2/2)

UDF's big gains came in minority dominated districts

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

The Congress-led-UDF’s sweep in Kerala was especially visible in the state’s regions with significant minority populations. The UDF had a vote share of 51.9% and 50.2% in constituencies in districts having significant Muslim and Christian populations in the state respectively, compared to 42.1% in the rest of the state.

Since constituency-wise religious data is not available, this analysis uses district-level Census 2011 data as a proxy, taking seats in districts where Muslims or Christians account for more than 30% of the population. This is an imperfect measure of voter demography, but it helps test whether the UDF’s gains were also concentrated in places where Kerala’s two largest minority communities are demographically important. Muslims account for 26.6% of Kerala’s population and Christians for 18.4%, according to Census 2011.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· May 5

2 data stories on LDF's worst showing in Kerala and UDF's return to power in the state in today' HT. The 1st one looks at data to make sense of the overall results, including the BJP winning three seats. Comparing these results to those of the past www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/n... (1/2)

Not just a swing: Scale sets Kerala poll verdict apart
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

The Congress-led-United Democratic Front (UDF) has returned to power in Kerala with a decisive mandate, winning 102 of the 140 Assembly seats. Meanwhile, the incumbent CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has been reduced to 35 seats, its worst performance in the state. The BJP-led NDA, meanwhile, has won three seats, its best-ever tally in Kerala. What explains the results?

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Apr 30

UAE’s exit from OPEC has landed in a market already dominated by the West Asia war, which explains the muted immediate reaction. But the bigger question is what does losing one of its few members with room and reason to pump more oil mean for OPEC's future? Here's a closer look.

A crude shock

By Sreedev Krishnaumar

The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC comes at a moment when the war in West Asia has already pushed oil markets into crisis and made the Strait of Hormuz the main driver of prices. That is why the immediate market reaction has been muted. The longer-term question is different: what happens to a cartel whose share of world crude production has been falling, and which has now lost one of the few members with the capacity and incentive to pump more?

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Apr 23

Tamil Nadu is among India’s richest states and has had remarkable economic growth over the past 2 decades. Growth has lifted living standards and expanded state support, but it has also created a situation where reality sometimes falls short of economic aspirations. Here's a closer look.

Tamil Nadu's economic rise and the discontent beaneath
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

Tamil Nadu is one of India’s richest states. It is also a state which has seen a remarkable economic turnaround in the past couple of decades. This growth has improved quality of life and allowed successive governments to offer more economic support. But it has also created a situation where reality sometimes falls short of economic aspirations.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Apr 21

India's fertilliser output fell to a five-year low in March due to supply chain disruptions triggered by the US-Israel-Iran war, shows core sector data released by ministry of commerce and industry on Monday. www.hindustantimes.com/business/ind...

Fertiliser output falls to five-year low in March
By Sreedev Krishnakumar

Mumbai: Fertiliser production in India fell to a five year low in March, reflecting input shortages triggered by the ongoing war in West Asia, even as the combined index of eight core industries (popularly called core sector index) contracted by 0.4% on an annual basis, the weakest reading since August 2024 when it shrank 1.5%.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Apr 8

Kerala will go to the polling booths tomorrow. The campaign has seen competing promises on welfare and jobs. But for a state that takes pride in its economic model, those promises also raise difficult questions about strained public finances. Today’s HT Number Theory explains.

The building fiscal stress in the Kerala Model

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

Kerala will vote to elect a new government tomorrow. The campaign has seen competing promises on welfare and government jobs. For a state, which has taken pride in carving out a governance exceptionalism often portrayed as the Kerala Model, these promises entail an embrace of the nation-wide populism. But such promises will require a reckoning with the state’s fiscal problems.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Apr 3

Kerala votes on April 9, but this election has a West Asia angle too. As war rages in the region, its impact is rippling through millions of Malayalis with direct or indirect ties to the Gulf. Today's HT Number Theory show why this “western disturbance” matters so much for the state.

Kerala polls are facing a western (Asia) disturbance

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

Kerala will vote to elect a new government on April 9. Politics in what is an extremely politicized state is competing with the intense heat in the weather. But the state’s body politic is also dealing with an intense ‘western disturbance’: the ongoing war in West Asia and its impact on millions of Malayalis who are directly or indirectly invested in the region. Here are three charts which explain the argument in detail.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Mar 18

It has been more than two weeks since the start of the Iran-Israel-US war. Apart from the deaths of 100s (Mostly in Iran), the closure of Strait of Hormuz has inflicted pain on global economy. How have the markets reacted during this period? Today's HT Number Theory explores that in detail.

How markets have fared in 18 days of war

By Sreedev Krishnakumar

It has been more than two weeks since the US and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and starting a new war in West Asia. Iran shutting down Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes which is crucial in global oil trade, has sent crude prices soaring past the $100 per barrel mark. How have the Indian and global markets fared during this period? The charts below explore this in detail.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Mar 13

The IEA’s latest monthly report opens with a stark warning that the war in the Middle East has caused the biggest supply disruption in global oil market history. With Trump downplaying oil price risks and Iran warning crude could hit $200, this shock could become especially painful. Here's why.

The latest oil shock is different from the previous ones

By Roshan Kishore, Abhishek Jha, Sreedev Krishnakumar

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly Oil Market Report on Thursday. The opening line of the report states the gravity of the current energy crisis in unequivocal terms. “The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”, it says.

Statements from the political leadership of Iran and US – the two countries which matter the most as far as ending the conflict is concerned – does not help optimism on the current disruption. Bloomberg reported US President Donald Trump saying “stopping Iran is greater interest to me than price of oil” and “US makes a lot of money when oil prices go up”, while Iran’s military spokesperson has threatened that price of crude oil will reach $200 per barrel.

Between the energy market outlook and the politics around the conflict, the current oil shock could end up being the most painful for the world. Here is how.

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Sreedev Krishnakumar@sreedevkkumar· Mar 11

As war in West Asia disrupts energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is taking a hit, but unevenly. The strait is a bigger chokepoint for energy supplies to Asia than to the West. Today’s Number Theory explores this asymmetry, the key lesson of the current oil shock.