Stephanie Carvin

@stephaniecarvin

Former national security analyst, Associate Professor. Research on national and international security based in Ottawa, Canada 🇨🇦

904 Folgt15.343 Follower3.264 Posts

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Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· 19d

MOAR beach reads

Three books on tech, the military and great power. Unit X by Shah and Kirchhoff, Project Maven by Manson and Technology and the Rise of great Powers by Ding.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· 21d

Westinghouse is described as such in the June 2026 Canadian nuclear strategy.

Canada's domestic position
Approximately 13 percent of Canada's electricity is generated by nuclear energy using the homegrown CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactor. The Government of Canada retains ownership of CANDU intellectual property through Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), which also oversees the Chalk River national laboratory. AtkinsRéalis serves as the exclusive licensee for CANDU. More recently, Westinghouse — following its acquisition by Cameco and Brookfield — became Canadian-owned, broadening the country's technology base.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· 23d

Okay, non-economist here but the new US tariffs on Canada are just… kinda weird? Like they picked weird things to target (we have a Canadian tequila industry?!?) to go after slightly more than 5% of our trade. It is like they wanted 50% headlines but it is… targeting our honey industry?

Tweet by University of Toronto economist Joesph Steinberg.

Update: Based on annexes to the 3 factsheets and (hopefully) correct script to merge them with trade data, I get the following:
- ~5.3% of exports affected
- ~2.6pp increase in average effective tariff rate.
Will update with any further errors

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· 24d

welp.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· 29d

The weather today in Central Ontario is “fire”

Rather than a sun or a cloud the weather today is a flame.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· 29d

This has an extremely "please dont put in the newspaper that i got mad" vibe.

Tweet from Elbridge Colby: There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective “middle powers”strategy these days.

At DoW, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allies and partners will *think it is* and waste valuable time, money, and political capital on a distraction. 1/

From our point of view, a collective middle powers strategy is based on a faulty understanding of international relations. We are flexible realists. So, we view the international scene through the prism of interest, geography, economics, military power, etc. “Middle powers” don’t have a coherent basis for alignment. 2/
Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby

@USWPColby
·
8h
It also isn’t borne out by reality, in our experience. We see an *upsurge* in desire for engagement with the United States, not a reduction. Under President Trump’s leadership, countries not only see the value of American engagement, they can no longer take it for granted. We unquestionably see an incredibly strong and continuing demand signal for U.S. military presence and engagement around the world. 3/
Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby

@USWPColby
·
8h
Take our defense industry and arms sales. There is a lot of commentary that, due to alleged frustrations with the United States, the American defense industrial base will lose out on the market for weaponry. But this is neither feasible nor accurate. 4/
Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby

@USWPColby
·
8h
The simple fact of the matter is that no alternative country or countries can compete with the U.S. defense industrial base, either in quantity or quality. The United States, as the President says, makes the best equipment, and we make it at a scale that no plausible competitor can match. If anything, access to the American DIB is a privilege, not a right. 5/

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 11

If this is accurate it is hugely disappointing and a bad sign for CUSMA/USMCA. It is also another reason why Canadians will not be able to fully trust any American administration in the future. Awful.

Here are some of the details on what Canada had to give up to open the Gordie Howe Bridge, as per a Canadian government source.

For the first 15 years, Canada gets 50% of toll profits and the other 50% goes into a regional "economic development fund." What that fund does and who runs, is not clear

Under the previous agreement, Canada was to receive 100% of toll profit until they were made whole on the $6.4B they spent to build the bridge, which Michigan/the US contributed $0. The agreement also says it could be 50+ years before Canada was whole, that timeline is now longer.

The Americans will have to agree if Canada wants to increase the bridge tolls by more than 10%, or lower them below compared regional averages.

That clause helps out the owners of the Ambassador Bridge, the Maroun family, who have donated to the Trump administration and previously to US ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, to try and stop the new bridge from opening #cdnpoli

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 8

100% endorse

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 8

Reading the mind blowing pieces from the Wall Street Journal this evening and this detail about the call to “Carney’s National Security Council” seems odd - it is a Cabinet Committee. Possible but maybe also confused with the NSIA? (Although that position has been re-named).

The next evening, top EU leader António Costa brought nearly 30 heads of government into the European Council headquarters known as “The Space Egg,“ for what became an emotional, five-hour conversation about the U.S. that some called “therapy night.” A tired EU diplomatic service official called Carney’s National Security Council afterward to say the meeting had been a before-and-after moment in Europe’s relationship with America.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 6

I see what you did here @stevenchase.bsky.social. 😐

The Carney government, for its part, has taken advantage of this heated rivalry to extract spending promises from bidders that would benefit its Canada-first industrial policy, which seeks to preserve and expand industrial capacity as a defence against U.S. protectionism.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 4

You’re my guys, buddies!

The Canadian men’s so. Er team as south park characters

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 4

Simeon’s meme of Janitor Willy dressed as Canada saying he wants to take down the Moroccans and then him running away from the Moroccans

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 4

Yessss

A picture of BlueSky posts saying they are booing Gretzky because he sucks

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jul 1

Canada Day update 🇨🇦☀️🥵

A picture from Super Mario 3 - the level where the Sun tries to kill you - with Mario standing next to a Canada flag

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jun 30

STOP RUINING MY OSHAWA DREAMS, BRUCE. LET US FLY

A fake Oshawa city sign. It says “the Shwa: she’s dirty but she’s home”

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jun 21

Update: haters mad

Picture of a tweet with a link to this story with 472 angry, angry people commenting.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jun 19

Love it! Congrats #CanMNT 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

Table showing top scorers of the World Cup and Canadian Jonathan David is ranked with Messi as #1 with 3 goals each

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· Jun 15

While Canadians are having debates about what our relationship with the US should be in terms of economic and military cooperation, the US is deciding for us and it is UGLY.

America’s allies are now reeling again. Many had spent months securing access to Mythos for government departments, banks and companies. Those permissions evaporated overnight. The cut-off exempts no one, not even America’s partners in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance: Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand. Those countries are already grappling with the lapse of key surveillance powers that Congress recently failed to renew. Losing access to Mythos puts them in the same boat as Russia, China or Iran. Britain’s AI Security Institute, the world’s leading body for testing and jailbreaking new models, has also been locked out.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 26

Welp. Someone got TOLD.

I don’t have all of the text as it is just a snapshot someone sent but basically the Indian High Commissioner is now trying to walk back his statements and claiming the interview was off-record

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 21

Hey #Ottawa Ladies/women/Femmes/moms/teens, my good friend Jocelyn is running a JAVA & JIUJITSU session focusing on Women’s Beginner Self Defense at Zen MMA in Napean this June. Dates TBA next week and you can follow all of the cool things at her website. www.groundedfemmecollective.com

Poster for Java and Jiu Jitsu to be hosted at Zen MMA. It is $30 and you get a $10 discount when you bring a friend.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 18

Oh and hey look who Colby just met with, US ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra.

Colby tweet: Great hosting @USAmbCanada Pete Hoekstra at the Pentagon recently. We're working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit's 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 18

I am not smart enough to know the significance of this. It only meets semi-annually and does not seem to have much in the way of decision making. That would make this just another symbolic slight. But smarter people let me know if that is wrong.

Series of tweets from Under Secretary of War Colby: A strong Canada that prioritizes hard power over rhetoric benefits us all. Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments. DoW is pausing the Permanent Joint Board on Defense to reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 17

So glad this AI-driven scam targeting new authors enjoyed the [specific hook].

I spent time with your book For Blood and Soil and found myself reflecting on its exploration of International Affairs / Security Studies. What stayed with me in particular was [specific hook]. There is a depth and intentionality in your writing that invites engagement rather than passive reading, and that is something we value strongly in our community.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

There is a section on CSIS and cybersecurity (which never leaves CSE very happy, but it is what it is.) An interesting tidbit has more to do with CSIS activities in the Indo-Pacific - something mentioned in the 2022 Strategy, but upon which we have little public information. Interesting this is here

As part of the Government of Canada’s Indo-Pacific
Strategy, CSIS has made strategic investments in
the Indo-Pacific region and has undertaken more
frequent and targeted discussions with partners,
including on cyber security. CSIS continues to
exchange intelligence and advice with Indo-Pacific
partners on the cyber threats they are facing,
providing timely and actionable information to
support their efforts to build resilience. A strong
and resilient cyber security posture is essential
to preventing and responding to cyber threats.
By working more closely with its partners, CSIS
aims to promote a more secure and stable cyber
environment, and to support Canada’s national
interests in the region.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

There is a very short counter-proliferation section in which only Russia is singled out. Kind of surprised to not see Iran here?

CSIS investigates efforts by adversarial foreign
states and state-affiliated actors to illicitly procure
a range of sensitive technologies, services, research
and intellectual property in Canada to advance
their own weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
programs. The proliferation of chemical, biological,
radiological, and nuclear weapons, or WMDs, and
their associated delivery vehicles constitute a global
challenge and a threat to the security of Canada
and its allies.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

There is a large section on CSIS and the Arctic, where Russia and China are again singled out as concerns. There is also a vague assertion about states (which probably include but are not necessarily limited to China and Russia) trying to establish "physical presence" there to exert influence.

As Canada’s Arctic becomes more accessible,
the growing political and economic interest in
land and seascapes is leading to more intensive
industrial activities. Foreign states, such as Russia
and the PRC, also have a significant intelligence
interest in our Arctic and those who influence or
develop its economic or strategic potential. This
includes access to the region’s natural resources,
such as oil, gas, and minerals. This past year,
CSIS has seen certain states look to establish and
maintain commercial or scientific operations (i.e.,
a physical presence) in Canada to provide them
with a platform or cover to engage in threat
activities against Canada and Canadians.
For example, state actors are seeking to partner with
companies, governments, and communities to invest
in critical infrastructure (e.g., ports, communications,
energy networks) and natural resources to secure
long-term influence in the region. This influence
could be exploited to advance geopolitical and
foreign influence activities that are counter to
Canada’s sovereignty and national interest.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

CSIS also says it "began participating in national security reviews of payment service providers (PSPs) under the Retail Payment Activities Act." I'm going to have to ask @jessmarindavis.bsky.social what this means, but I suspect it is similar to providing assessments under the Investment Canada Act

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

The next section is on Economic and research security. I'm not sure if this was in previous years report, but there is a section on cryptocurrencies which I don't think I've seen in a CSIS Public Report before?

Cryptocurrencies, or virtual assets, while not yet
considered mainstream financial instruments
in the Canadian financial sector, have become
a complex and dynamic market. In doing so,
they are also increasing related national security
threats in this space. For example, state actors and
their proxies are masking their identity by using
Western front companies, leveraging the strength
of cryptocurrency and its weaknesses, and are
using it to enable their threat activities in largely
unregulated or under regulated markets globally.
CSIS notes that centralized stablecoin issuers
introduce an additional risk factor as they could
manipulate the market—a potentially powerful tool
in the hands of adversaries.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

There is a very small section on PMVE, and discussion of "Canadian-Based Khalistani Extremism, or CBKE). The language on this has been pretty couched throughout.

There were no CBKE related attacks in Canada in
2025. Ongoing involvement in violent extremist
activities by CBKEs continues to pose a national
security threat to Canada and to Canadian interests.
Some CBKEs are well connected to Canadian
citizens who leverage Canadian institutions to
promote their violent extremist agenda and collect
funds from unsuspecting community members that
are then diverted toward violent activities.

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin· May 1

Last year the headlines that came out of the Director's First Annual Address had to do with youth extremism. The statistic he cited: 1/10 investigations involves a minor, is restated here: