S. W. Lawrence, MD

@swlawrence

Writer of climate fiction or cli-fi. But my work is preapocalyptic and optimistic, unlike most works in this space.

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ClimateBrink: "The Strongest El Niño Ever." This is from a substack post by Zeke Hausfather, who gets points just for his name.

Strong El Niño pending. "With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin."

The multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as 'detrended' sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific) currently stands at 3.6ºC, roughly 0.8ºC hotter than the prior record of 2.75ºC set in 2015-16. "No event in a century and a half of observations has ever pushed meaningfully past 2.75ºC." The legendary 1877-78 event comes closest, in a statistical dead heat with 2015-16 (2.73ºC vs 2.75ºC, well within the uncertainty of 19th-century ship data)."

"The 2026 event is developing faster than 1997-98, the previous gold standard for explosive El Niño onsets." And unlike 2015 which started its year already warm from a precursor event, this one launched from genuinely La Niña-ish conditions in January.

"In a warming world, the raw Niño 3.4 anomaly risks conflating El Niño with the broader ocean warming trend." NOAA’s answer is the "Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)," which subtracts the tropical-mean SST anomaly to isolate the ENSO signal.

Aggregating all the models together, Hausfather projects a ~91% chance of a record peak in Niño 3.4 terms and ~77% in RONI terms this year. Whichever way you slice the index, the forecast says the same thing: this is more likely than not to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.

Clearly, time to batten down the hatches. Just as clearly, time to aggressively address the weirding climate.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· 24d

CleanTechnica: "US Hydropower Faces Supply Chain Challenges With Large Power Transformers." The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) just released a report examining the U.S. supply chain for "large power transformers," or LPTs.

Extralarge electrical transformer. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) just released a report examining the U.S. supply chain for "large power transformers," or LPTs. "Large Power Transformer Supply Chain Gap Analysis and Domestic Content Strategies for Hydropower Rehabilitation focuses specifically on the unique challenges that hydropower facilities face when upgrading or replacing LPTs."

These are 'massive, custom-built devices [that] drastically increase the voltage of electricity generated by hydropower turbines for long-distance transmission.

There are 9 major issues, but sadly I have space for only a subset.

[1] U.S. LPT manufacturers rely 80% on imported raw materials like grain-oriented electrical steel + refined copper.

[2] Domestic manufacturing capabilities have grown in recent years but not enough to meet rising demand.

[3] The procurement timeline for a typical LPT (rated to handle 100 megavolt-amperes of electrical power) is approximately 2.5 to 3 years + up to 5 years for extra-high-voltage LPTs.

[4] Transformer costs have increased significantly since 2021, with prices rising approximately 80% in 2025. The cost of a single unit can be as high as $10 million.

[5] As these industries have been offshored over the last several decades, skilled workers have retired or moved to other industries. Thus, manufacturers and vendors of hydropower components struggle to find workers with more than 10 years of industry experience.

[6] Transport logistics are particularly complex for hydropower LPTs because many hydroelectric dams are difficult to reach due to rugged terrain or remote locations. There is a limited domestic fleet of specialized vehicles that can transport LPTs to these places, and routes require special permits for oversized loads.

I'll stop here, as the photo demonstrates this complexity all too well.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· 25d

OilPricedotcom: "As Ukraine Cripples Russian Refining, Global Diesel Markets Pay the Price." "Ukrainian drone {+ missile] strikes have crippled Russia's refining sector, cutting crude processing to its lowest level since 2005."

Omsk refinery almost 1500 miles from Ukraine. Moscow has responding by withdrawing 1 fuel after another from export. "First, Russia banned gasoline exports in April because domestic production had little surplus." Next, Moscow banned jet fuel exports on June 1, amid tightening demand, followed by a ban on diesel exports on July 8." The diesel ban now covers oil companies that refine their own crude, removing an earlier exemption that allowed large producers to continue selling abroad.

But export bans have been insufficient, so now Russia pays to import finished products. At least 60,000 tonnes of gasoline reportedly arrived from India. "Additionally, gasoline shipments from Belarus reached 141,000 tonnes during the first 25 days of June, 2.4 times the volume imported during all of May." Being globally interconnected, Russian diesel withdrawal has tightened a market already losing product shipments from the Middle East conflict.

"Omsk lies more than 2,000 kilometers from the front and processed about 22 million tonnes of crude in 2024, making it Russia’s largest refinery." By looking at the map, you can appreciate how far the Omsk refinery is from Ukraine. Yet these strikes continue to get through.

The attacks in Iran + the attacks in Russia dramatically illustrate the risks of American fossil fuel dependence. I will continue to enjoy driving my EV—charging at home with sunshine—this patriotically supports both personal + national resilience.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· 26d

SightlineInstitute: "Drill, Baby, Drill!—for Thermal Energy." Claiming electricity shortfalls are coming, utilities here in the Pacific Northwest are increasingly clamoring to roll back clean energy laws + build expensive, new gas-fired power plants, even though cheaper solutions are possible.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· 27d

AAAS: "Springer Nature restores Max Planck’s mysteriously retracted papers." We just returned from taking a couple of our grandsons to the San Juan Islands for a few days.

Max Planck. For me, this was a computer-free vacation, so in clearing my email inbox from a mountain of dross this morning, I happened upon one high note. "The publisher Springer Nature this week reversed the more than decade-old retraction of two papers by the legendary physicist and Nobel laureate, saying the initial action was based on human error." Publisher reportedly denies a bot was to blame for withdrawing famed physicist’s work.

"The journal that published the papers in the 1940s had quietly removed them in 2011, and the current editor of the journal, now known as The Science of Nature, recently speculated that the decision stemmed from Springer Nature’s internal policing software, which the company denies."

A pair of University of Quebec historians, Yves Gingras and Mahdi Khelfaoui, called the two retractions a distortion of the scientific record. “We still believe that, given the scale of Springer's digitization projects and journal archive, some automated workflow related to copyright screening or duplicate detection flagged the two papers for review."

As they say, the final decision may well have been made by a human, but that does not mean the process began ‘manually.' As I say, 'justice delayed is justice denied.' But in this case, only for a month. I salute these dogged "historians of science." Call me biased, but I think Planck's photograph projects a steely + uncompromising gaze.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 14

AAAS: “Study dampens hope that meningitis vaccine can also prevent gonorrhea.” Couple of points about the causative agent of gonorrhea in the microphotograph, with many names including the formal designation as Neisseria gonorrheae but also the common name of ‘the clap.’

Gonorrhea under the microscope. This is magnified 1,000-fold + not a great gram stain sadly. The upper blue arrow points at some Neisseria that have probably been taken inside a pus cell or ‘poly’ for short. The lower blue arrow points out a group of the organisms outside of pus cells.

“Nine years ago, a serendipitous finding at sexual health clinics raised hopes for the prevention of gonorrhea, one of the world’s most widespread sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Researchers in New Zealand discovered that patients had a 31% reduced risk of infection if they had previously been vaccinated against meningococcal group B—which causes meningitis, not STIs—especially in people entering college.” And this “cross-protection” made sense, because N. meningitidis, the meningococcal bacterium, is closely related to N. gonorrhoeae, meaning some antibodies might work against both.

But a randomized controlled trial (RCT) published this wk in The New England Journal of Medicine has dampened those hopes. “The study showed that a meningococcal vaccine named 4CMenB did not prevent gonorrhea in men who have sex with men (MSM) at high risk of STIs.”

“Gonorrhea increases the risk of contracting HIV and can lead to infertility if not treated properly…with some 82 million cases worldwide every year, and the microbe has a knack for developing resistance against antibiotics.” Additionally, developing a vaccine has proved difficult, in part because N. gonorrhoeae rapidly alters its surface proteins to evade detection by the human immune system.

Further study is needed in other populations in different parts of the world, in the constant battle against pernicious microorganisms.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 13

CanaryMedia: "California solar surged ahead of gas in the first 5 months of 2026." Utility-scale solar + storage outproduced California gas plants every day from January through May.

Solar surpasses gas. I cannot emphasize enough that the Energy Information Agency [EIA] does not collect comparable information about rooftop solar, but empirically, we know that California’s rooftop solar capacity nearly matches its utility-scale capacity. In fact, data firm Ember tallied small- and large-scale solar production to show that all California solar nearly beat gas for the full year of 2024, but it hasn’t yet released results for the whole of 2025 on its U.S. Electricity Data Explorer.

"For years, natural gas has dominated electricity production in the climate-conscious Golden State, just as it has nationally." In both cases, this fossil fuel delivered ~40% of annual generation for much of the last decade.

"But that started to change in California as solar developers and rooftop installers added more and more capacity, and big batteries joined the party, too." In fact, utility-scale solar outperformed gas on 82% of the days in that five-month stretch in the California Independent System Operator’s wholesale market [CAISO]. "It's more striking given that the state still has more installed gas capacity (29 GW) than utility-scale solar capacity (25 gigawatts), and that this larger gas fleet can operate whenever, while solar is constrained to sunny times."

California’s gas fleet is in free fall: Generation dropped by 60% from the same time period in 2024, while solar generation increased by 21% in that same interval." Plus, "battery developers...built 16 GW of capacity in CAISO to charge up on solar power and then compete with gas after sundown."

"Meanwhile, wind imports recently jumped as the gigantic SunZia project came online [in New Mexico + Arizona], and that takes the fight to gas in the middle of the night, further depressing its output."

Solar + wind + geothermal + hydropower + storage are gonna win this World Cup for electricity in the Golden State, fourth largest economy in the world.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 12

ClimateTrunk: "Learning by Doing." This should shiver the timbers of fossil fuel proponents as the cost of solar modules has plummeted by 99.9% over half a century—called a virtuous curve or cycle, whichever your preference.

Plummeting solar cell costs. Pioneered by Theodore Wright in 1936, Wright's Law describes how costs fall as cumulative production rises. "Every time the world doubled its installed solar capacity, panel prices fell by about 20%." Economists call this relationship a "learning curve."

The same pattern has driven down the cost of other manufactured goods like computer chips and flat-screen TVs. "Lithium-ion batteries have followed similar learning curves, helping make solar-plus-storage competitive with fossil fuels in most parts of the world."

Our World in Data hosts the classic version, plotting solar prices against cumulative capacity on logarithmic axes. "This graph tells the same story differently: as solar deployment accelerated—slowly at first, then exponentially—costs kept dropping." It was driven by relentless innovation, economies of scale, manufacturing expertise and policy support. "As costs fell, deployment rose. It took eight years for global solar generation to grow from 100 terawatt hours (TWh) to 1,000, then just three more to pass 2,000 TWh."

(Global electricity demand is about 32,000 TWh.)

"Analysts expect solar costs to fall by another 40% by 2035 as manufacturing scales further." This is how solar generation grew. 30% in 2025, now matching nuclear's share of global electricity. "In 2025, clean electricity growth exceeded the increase in global electricity demand, keeping fossil generation flat." That propelled renewables to generate 34% of global electricity, overtaking coal's 33% share. "At the same time, plummeting battery costs are turning daytime sunshine into round-the-clock electricity."

No more warning shots across the bow. Solar is aiming at the main masts of fossil fuel dominance.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 11

AAAS: "British ‘First Fleet’ brought smallpox to Australia—and may have killed millions." "On a hot summer day in January 1788, 11 ships filled with British convicts and sailors landed in Australia’s Sydney Harbor.

British ship. Captain Arthur Phillip raised Union Jack + claimed continent for British crown." Arrival of this so-called First Fleet preceded a catastrophe that befell continent’s Indigenous people.

"More than a yr after first landing, “there [were] a significant number of Aboriginal people perishing in ghastly circumstances from what sounds like smallpox,” says Lynette Russell, historian at Monash University." Study in press, released last year as preprint, tracks how spread to argue First Fleet was only possible source. "Related preprint suggests the toll of smallpox + other impacts of colonization far greater than believed."

'Smallpox story was a way that British could say that there were no more of us in those early times, that everybody was wiped out,” says molecular biologist Shane Ingrey, whose Indigenous ancestors, the Dharawal, lived around Sydney Harbor + might have been watching as First Fleet landed.'

Smallpox is highly contagious + fast moving; victims either die in a matter of weeks after exposure, or else recover + are no longer contagious. 'British ships were at sea for months en route to Australia—“most effective quarantine situation imaginable,”—suggesting the disease, if present, would have burned itself out long before ships arrived.' But, the authors speculate the source may have been the bottles of smallpox scabs that physicians in the 18th century British navy carried to vaccinate against the disease.

"British colonists are known to have deliberately infected Indigenous groups in North America, where smallpox also took a catastrophic toll...though no [Australian] record exists of such a plan." Combining different methods, the authors of the second preprint propose that precolonial Australia hosted between 950,000 and 4.1 million people, likely about 2.3 M.

The findings also suggest contemporary Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations, which hover around 1 M people, haven’t yet returned to even half their preinvasion numbers.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 10

Only appropriate after the recent celebration of the semiquincentennial of the Declaration of Independence is a review of the evolution of energy. I almost have to apologize for the archaic language of the energy metric "quadrillion British thermal units."

US total energy use. The Btu unit is about the same as measuring the heat released by a wooden kitchen match. The nickname for the combination is simply "quads." Total American energy—not just electricity.

Over the 250-year history of our nation, energy consumption has evolved from wood use in the 18th and 19th centuries to today’s use of modern renewables, hydropower, geothermal, hydrocarbons, and nuclear technology. "In 2025, total energy used in the United States was 96 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), up 2% from 2024, but below 2007’s record 99 quads."

Petroleum was the most-used energy source last year, followed closely by fossil methane + propane gases. Use of renewables + coal + nuclear energy each made up about 9% of total energy use. "As a share of total energy consumption in the United States, wood was the most-consumed source of energy early in our history." It is a tiny part of the 'other' category now. [But I still know people who heat or even cook with wood or biofuels].

Next, "fossil fuels emerged as the largest share of energy, starting with the use of coal, which expanded rapidly." With the more recent emergence of nuclear power + forms of renewable energy such as wind + solar, the total share of energy generation from fossil fuels decreased. "However, as of 2025, fossil fuels still accounted for the vast majority of energy consumed in the United States, accounting for 82% of energy consumed."

Staring at that stark number—82%—we must all realize that to repair the climate we have our work cut out for us. Coal is declining in spite of the misguided efforts by the White House. Methane + propane must be staunchly ratcheted down as well. Petroleum is the other large target. So, let's hop to it.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 9

AAAS: "Proposed new satellite fleets could overwhelm the night sky." Orbiting data centers + sunlight reflectors would severely degrade astronomy by leaving streaks on telescope images + brightening our pitch-black sky.

Satellite streaks. Olivier Hainaut, astronomer at the European Southern Observatory [ESO], examined 2 recent commercial proposals.

"In 2025, Reflect Orbital sought permission from Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to launch test satellite carrying an 18-m-wide reflector that would beam sunlight onto nighttime Earth." Company’s plans to launch 50,000 reflectors to extend operating hours of solar arrays, mines, emergency responders with artificial daylight.

"Prime astronomy sites such as ESO’s Paranal Observatory in Chile aim to keep light pollution below 1% of natural night-sky brightness." Fleet of 5,000 reflectors would raise sky brightness worldwide by up to 30%; 50,000 craft would boost it as much as 300%.

'Reflect Orbital says it will steer its 5-km-wide beams, 4-fold brighter than full Moon, away from observatories.' But even outside the beam each of the reflectors would shine as bright as Venus, the brightest object after the Moon.

Ever since SpaceX launched the Starlink internet satellites in 2019, astronomers have worked with companies to reduce impact of these so-called satellite megaconstellations. "SpaceX has made efforts to dim the reflectivity of its Starlink satellites, even as the constellation has grown." (More than 10,000 Starlinks are already in orbit and the company is planning 32,000 more.)

"Constellation of 1 million SpaceX data centers would make satellite trails in telescope images almost unavoidable for most of the night...especially for wide-viewing instruments such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile.'

ESO + other bodies working with International Astronomical Union to persuade satellite operators to lessen impact of their constellations, + through UN to draw up international norms countries can translate into national laws.

Wouldn't adding sunlight that should miss Earth incrementally speed up global warming? Contact the FCC at ecfs@fcc.gov with header phrase "get form," + email address in the body, as I just did.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 8

AAAS: "British Trawlers Working Nearly 20 Times as Hard to Catch Fish." Most commercial fisherfolk today don't appreciate how much harder it is to catch fish than it was for their forebears. In the 1880s, steam-powered trawlers began to compete with sail-powered fishing boats in European waters.

Graph of declining ocean fish. "The practice was controversial in the United Kingdom, where some critics claimed that the new trawlers were reducing fish stocks and damaging habitats."

Marine conservation biologist Callum Roberts of the University of York in the United Kingdom decided to analyze the historical data. "To adjust the catch data for the increasingly powerful and sophisticated fishing boats, Roberts and colleagues used boat registration records to calculate the overall power of the British fleet." The researchers expressed ship 'power' in units equivalent to the catching power of one sail-powered trawler in the 1880s, calculating the Landings Per Unit of fishing Power (LPUP).

"From 1889 until 1914, LPUP dropped sharply, from more than 60 tons to less than 20 tons." The decrease in fishing during World War I allowed a recovery of fish stocks, and LPUP rebounded briefly to 30 tons in 1918. "Between WWI and the 1950s, British vessels began fishing farther from home, off the coast of West Africa and in the Arctic...[allowing] the rate of fish caught by British vessels to increase again, to about 50 tons in 1956." But with continued exploitation, LPUP nose-dived, to about 5 tons in 1980, the team reports online this week in Nature Communications.

"After 1983, the Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union set strict new limits on where and how much British vessels could fish, but stocks have not recovered."

Today it takes 17 times as much fishing power to land a fish as it did in 1889, an LPUP of 3.4.

The implications are clear, overfishing, yes, but also marine warming, loss of coral reefs as incubators, plastic + other pollution, acidification, now looming deoxygenation. Climate change + impoverishment of marine ecosystems. Pity the poor fish + the fisherfolk.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 7

AAAS: "Being a taller tree doesn’t doom you to drought after all." "Despite their stature...tall trees move water through their lengthy wooden bodies with surprising efficiency—so much so that a new study argues they may not be as susceptible to drought as once thought."

Scientists in tree. Dipterocarps are a tropical tree group that dominates the rainforests of Southeast Asia. "Height doesn’t seem to stymie these trees’ ability to transport water, the researchers found: Taller dipterocarps appear to show the same reaction to drought stresses as their smaller counterparts."

Forest ecologist Amy Bennett was lead author of a 2015 paper that found that larger trees suffer most in droughts worldwide. Bennett says the new paper shows there are important exceptions. “I don’t think it overturns the idea that large trees are more vulnerable in many forests,” she added.

Cardiff University forest ecologist Paulo Bittencourt, new study’s lead author, journeyed into Malaysia’s Kabili Sepilok Forest Reserve on the island of Borneo to study the role of height. " Over the course of 3 months in 2022, the team collected branches and trunk core samples from 38 different dipterocarp trees representing five different species, with heights ranging from 7.1 to 71 meters."

The trunk core samples revealed tall dipterocarps had wider vessels at their bases to compensate for the extra resistance involved in moving water up a greater distance. At the base of a 70-meter tree, vessels are more than twice as wide as those at the base of a 10-meter tree.

"In another adaptation, the leaves at the top of the tall trees were more resilient to a lack of water supply—they could maintain their ability to photosynthesize in drier conditions than those on the trees’ lower branches." The researchers tested the dehydration thresholds of the tissues by inducing embolisms—blockages formed by air bubbles—within the tissues’ water vessels, which can occur in trees as a symptom of drought. "They found that the tissues of smaller and taller trees responded to dehydration similarly, suggesting a tree’s height isn’t directly related to its vulnerability to these types of embolisms."

This botanic complexity in tree tissue fairly boggles the mind, does it not? Or it should.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 6

Timeanddate.com: “Perihelion and Aphelion.” My reason for posting this will become clear shortly. The exaggerated ellipse in the figure emphasizes that the orbit of our planet is not a perfect circle, but rather varies over the course of each year.

Graphic of Earth's orbit + Sun around each other. The Earth is closest to the Sun, at its perihelion, about two weeks after the December solstice and farthest from the Sun, or at its aphelion, about two weeks after the June solstice.”

The root of both words goes back to Helios, the Titan god of the Sun in ancient Greek mythology, often depicted with a radiant crown, driving his four-horse chariot across the sky each day, bringing light to gods + mortals. “This path’s shape varies due to the gravitational influences of other planetary objects, particularly the Moon.” But also Saturn + Jupiter.

This variation over 100,000 years is called ellipticity, + is one of the famous 3 Milankovitch celestial cycles, about which nothing more will be said today. Another more subtle point is that the Earth doesn’t actually rotate around the Sun, rather both rotate about their joint center of mass—which lies within the star given its huge mass compared to any of the planets.

“In 1246, the December Solstice was on the same day as the Earth reached its perihelion.” Since then, the perihelion and aphelion dates have drifted by a day every 58 years. “In the short-term, the dates can vary up to two days from one year to another.”

And as it turns out, this year it exactly corresponds to my younger + better looking brother Jonathan’s birthday today. As if that’s not enough, he is taller + a black belt in karate + has 3 gorgeous daughters. So, here’s looking at you, kid.

BTW, this is the only present you’re getting.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 5

PIOMAS: "PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume." I met Andy Lee Robinson more than a few years ago, online that is. Last I heard he was in England. I do remember I paid him in British pounds sterling [£] for the lifetime privilege of using this image. This graph begins in 1979.

Arctic Sea ice Spiral. Pertinent in comprehending this is realizing several points.

First, sea ice forms on the ocean surface, with contributions both from the salty ocean surface + fresh snowfall. Separate from the ice floes calving off tide-water glaciers.

Second, April—the light green line—is the maximum extent of sea ice, the end of Arctic winter of course.

Third, September—the black line—is the minimum extent of sea ice, in this case coincident with the end of Arctic summer.

The pictures you have often seen of the fluctuating surface area of Arctic sea ice represent just that, while this graph is a measure of total volume, more pertinent in understanding climate effects. When + where sea ice disappears, more dark blue ocean water absorbs far more solar energy, which is a main reason that the Arctic is warming up faster than the world as a whole.

It should be apparent to the naked eye where all of this is headed, with huge implications for geoscience, fishing, extinctions, navigation, territorial claims, seafloor mining, extraction of fossil fuels—and the survival of whales. Yes, whales, since with dwindling sea ice, pods of orcas have migrated north to predate on Arctic whales such as belugas + narwhales.

I post this every couple of years, + suggest somber contemplation.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 4

Wikipedia: "Electricity sector in Brazil." Brazil has the largest electricity sector in Latin America, + in 2024, Brazil added a substantial 10.9 GW of new power generation capacity, with a total installed capacity of 209 GW, of which nearly 85% was renewable.

Brazilian electricity sectors. [Recall that a gigawatt or GW is equivalent to the instantaneous or power rating of a typical nuclear power plant.]. "The installed capacity grew from 11,000 MW in 1970 with an average yearly growth of 5.8% per year."

Impressively, Brazil has the largest capacity for water storage in the world, based largely on hydroelectricity generation capacity, which meets over 60% of its electricity demand. "The national grid runs at 60 Hz, just like in the US, and is powered 83% from renewable sources." This dependence on hydropower makes Brazil vulnerable to power supply shortages in drought years, as was demonstrated by the 2001–2002 energy crisis.

"In 2023, the output of Brazil's electricity system, serving over 88 million consumers, exceeded that of all other South American nations combined." Anticipated investments surpassing $100 billion by 2029 aim to expand utility-scale + distributed generation, alongside transmission + distribution projects. "The National Interconnected System (SIN) comprises the electricity companies in the South, South-East, Center-West, North-East and part of the North region." Only 3.4% of the country's electricity production is located outside the SIN, in small isolated systems located mainly in the Amazonian region.

Fascinating country in so many ways. From my background in infectious disease, problems with zika, dengue fever, malaria. But the specter of drought hangs over the Amazon + Brazil's power sector, as in many areas of the world. Since Brazil is about 92% tropical, it seems to me they should diversify further into solar + storage.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 3

AAAS: "Scientists have only discovered a tiny fraction of living insect species." From half-meter-long moths to fairy wasps smaller than sand grains, insects come in a stunning variety of shapes and sizes and constitute the most diverse animal group on Earth.

$Wasp. “But the insect species discovered so far may represent just a fraction of the total crawling, flying, and burrowing around the planet, according to a new study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.” Using statistical methods borrowed from epidemiologists, a team of entomologists estimates there may be as many as 20 million insect species on our planet—more than three times the previous estimate. “Over the past 3 centuries, biologists have described about 1 million insect species, but finding and describing them all would be a daunting—if not impossible—task.” However, a subfamily of parasitoid wasps known as Microgastrinae, which infamously lay their eggs inside living caterpillars, are extremely well-studied. “Over the past several years, scientists conducting surveys of flying insects in the park have identified 388 species of Microgastrinae.” Independently, when scientists surveyed caterpillars that had been parasitized within the park, they identified only 889 wasp species. With almost no overlap, the mismatch between the 2 studies allowed a statistical estimate of a whopping 2394 Microgastrinae species. Applying this as a multiple to all 53,945 known insect species within Guanacaste suggests the park is actually home to 332,846 insect species, most of which have gone unobserved. “The researchers then scaled this number globally using another diverse group of organisms: trees…[with] 1200 [to] 1500 tree species within Guanacaste and about 73,000 on Earth, meaning the park contains between 1.6% and 2.1% of global tree diversity.” If the same percentage holds true for insects, then there’s anywhere between 13.3 million and 24.7 million insect species on Earth, with a safe middle-of-the-road estimate of 20.3 M species. While you may think this epidemiological calculation represents biodiversity run riot, recall that many insect species are in decline from pesticides + habitat loss + climate change. Do not be sanguine.$

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 2

Grist: "Alaska’s $44 billion bet on natural gas." Since his first day in office, Trump has focused on “unleashing Alaska’s extraordinary resource potential.”

Map of route of proposed gas line. Proponents like Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy extoll the economic benefits the pipeline will bring to Alaska and the energy security it will provide to allies.

"But the cost is staggering: Official estimates put it at $44 billion, though independent analysts suggest it could top $70 billion." North Slope of Alaska holds about 35 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, making it one of the largest known sources in the US. "But with the project’s steep price tag and no firm commitments from buyers, oil majors like ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil have backed away over the last decade."

Glenfarne Group, a privately held energy firm that has never operated a liquified natural gas export terminal, stepped in last year. Incredibly, "shortly after Trump was elected, state officials handed the company a 75 percent stake in the project in a NO-BID DEAL, the details of which have been kept even from the legislature." Glenfarne will lead the project’s development + financing efforts and, if the company decides to move forward, oversee construction + operation of the pipeline, gas treatment plant, + export terminal.

"Though the state has not paid Glenfarne directly, it has poured at least $600 million into planning, design, and permitting—and initially floated paying Glenfarne an additional $50 million for its costs, even if the company decided to walk away." The pipeline’s backers are already eyeing additional federal support, including $30 billion in loan guarantees.

“Every taxpayer should be furious that the federal government is chasing this project,” said Cooper Freeman, the state director for The Center for Biological Diversity, which is suing the federal government over the proposed pipeline’s threat to endangered species.

I didn't even have to look up how to spell boondoggle. Which is not a breed of dog. Or is it?

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jul 1

CanaryMedia: "Heat pumps may soon outsell air conditioners in US." We find ourselves, without exaggeration, in a deadly race toward the future. Heat pumps—essentially reversible air-conditioners—began outselling fossil methane gas furnaces 4 yrs ago.

Rising heat pump sales in US. Now they are rounding the corner on air-conditioning, too + may well pass on the curve. "In 2025, sales of the appliances were basically tied—and heat pumps even beat air conditioners in September, a first.

"Compared with the same period last year, heat pump sales are up by about 1%, while AC sales are down by nearly 8%, according to data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group." They’ve long been popular in more moderate climates, like the U.S. South, but in recent years their cold-weather performance has improved, and they’ve caught on in more frigid regions, too. "Heating is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions in the country, and heat pumps, which are two to four times more efficient than fossil-fueled systems, offer a much cleaner way to keep a space warm."

The fact that they also cool homes is a climate benefit in its own right, as extreme heat makes air-conditioning a necessity rather than a luxury. "Many states, municipalities, and utilities have incentivized the adoption of the energy-efficient, zero-emissions technology." These subsidies may come in the form of direct rebates, or may manifest in wonkier [ways], like pro-electric building codes or preferential electricity rates for homes with heat pumps.

"For a few years, the federal government offered incentives for the appliances, too, but...Trump and congressional Republicans repealed those last year."

Personally, we have been living with a heat pump for 8 yrs, and our house takes wonderful care of us + the planet at the same time. You may prefer to wager on the horses, but 'heat + cold pumps' are a better bet by far.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 30

AAAS: "Migrating sea turtles only sort of know where they’re going." "When Charles Darwin visited Ascension Island in 1836, he was perplexed by the vast numbers of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting on its beaches."

$Green sea turtle ascending to surface. Every mating season, these intrepid reptiles leave their feeding grounds along the coast of Brazil and journey > 2000 km across the sea to lay their eggs on this tiny, remote island. 'How, Darwin later mused in a letter to Nature, did the animals find their way to a “speck of land in the midst of the great Atlantic Ocean?”' Decades later, scientists uncovered convincing evidence that sea turtles can sense components of Earth’s geomagnetic field. 'Kenneth Lohmann, a marine biologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ...[and] his team previously conducted laboratory studies demonstrating turtles can sense the strength of geomagnetic fields as well as their angle relative to the surface of Earth—potentially providing migrating turtles with a “bicoordinate” geomagnetic map of their surroundings.' Just as wind can blow a bird off its flight path, ocean currents may divert a migrating turtle from its intended course. Apparently, sea turtles have only “an approximate idea of where they are and where they’re going.” Annual variations in magnetic field intensity + inclination, changing currents + the potential survival value of finding a new island all factor into the value of an imperfect navigation system. The updated tracking devices have a compass sensor that measures the direction a turtle is facing with respect to true north + a satellite transmitter that relays information about the animal’s location—and correct heading for Ascension—to the Argos satellite system, which is equipped to receive data from around the globe. The real beauty of the system is the remarkable speed with which it transmits data—essential when tracking an animal that spends most of its time beneath the waves, surfacing only briefly to catch its breath before diving down again. “You’ve only got a fraction of 1 second.” Of course, when I'm swimming I take pretty quick breaths as well.$

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 29

AAAS: "Why have papers by one of history’s most famous physicists been retracted?" Springer Nature has removed two studies by Max Planck, + an idiotic bot may be to blame.

Photo of Max Planck. "In early May, Yves Gingras, a historian of physics at the University of Quebec (UQ) at Montreal, was browsing Retraction Watch, a website that catalogs fraud, data manipulation, and other scientific sins."

Impossibly, the fourth name on the small subset of Nobel laureates...was a legendary pioneer of quantum mechanics + the 1918 Nobel laureate in physics. "Gingras had never heard a whiff of scandal about Planck, who was almost as widely revered for his character as his physics." In fact, in 1933 he bravely confronted Adolf Hitler over Nazi Germany’s discriminatory laws against Jews.

"The papers, both quietly retracted in 2011, originally appeared in the early 1940s in Naturwissenschaften, a German journal now owned by publishing giant Springer Nature." His philosophical essay from 1942 titled “Sinn und Grenzen der exakten Wissenschaft” (“Meaning and Limits of Exact Science”), addressed how to achieve certainty in scientific knowledge, had also appeared in two other journals and been reprinted twice in books. "Repackaging the same work multiple times [nowadays] is considered “self-plagiarism” and frowned upon today—the practice produces copyright conflicts and inflates scholars’ publication records."

The Naturwissenschaften site gives “copyright violation” as the reason for the retraction. "Yet publishing identical material in multiple journals was widespread before the internet...the practice was especially common for luminaries like Planck."

Gingras was especially incensed that Springer Nature deviated from the normal practice of merely slapping the word RETRACTED across the digital version of the paper while still allowing scholars to read the text. Instead, the publisher posted a blank white page with the cryptic phrase, “This article has been withdrawn due to article violation.”

Springer Nature is nevertheless still selling the empty PDF for $39.95.

Goldarnit, if that don't beat all, I say—with fists clenched.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 28

AAAS: “‘Light in a bottle’ liquid can harvest and store energy from multiple sources.” Engineers + materials scientists have created a new liquid that can store energy it harvests from sources including light by physically reassembling into a gel.

Sampl in test tube. “In this jellylike state, the material acts a bit like a battery, retaining energy for months at a time that can then be released on demand when exposed to oxygen.” Reported last week in Chem, this proof-of-concept research hints at a future in which one single metal-free material can harvest, store, and use energy.

“If proved out, the liquid could provide new ways to store and harness electricity or create semiconductors for devices where traditional metallic materials may have drawbacks, such as medical implants.” Researchers led by Samuel Stupp, a chemist at Northwestern University, designed a molecule made of two components: an amino naphthalene aromatic unit (ANI), which responds to light, and a methyl viologen (MV), which can store electrons. “The material starts out as a yellow liquid, but when light strikes it, the molecule’s ANI component absorbs energy and donates electrons to its MV component.” When the gel is exposed to oxygen, it disassembles back into a liquid, releasing the electrons.

“What’s more, the material doesn’t just harvest energy from light: It can also store energy from electricity, chemical fuel, and even x-rays.” To demonstrate real-world utility, he says, it would need to pass all sorts of tests that rechargeable batteries go through today, such as evaluating its power output and stability over many charge-discharge cycles. “This material product of basic science could mark a welcome break from the past century of energy technologies: an era dominated by substances made from metals and inorganic materials.”

At this juncture, I can only dimly contemplate the future utility of this new form of energy storage in our menagerie of battery technologies, to get on with ‘electrification of everything.’

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 26

CleanTechnica: "Canadian Solar Swoops In To Troll Trump On Solar Power." Canadian Solar is the name of a leading global PV manufacturer headquartered north of our border, and they are not taking Trump’s war on solar power sitting down.

Bifacial solar array. Late last year the company took steps to shield its US factories from the President’s on-again, off-again trade wars, and now they are just weeks away from shipping new high-performance solar modules to eager buyers throughout the world—including, presumably, the US.

Not for rooftop solar though, as 'the company’s new Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact or TOPCon 3.0 high-power-density photovoltaic module is aimed at the utility-scale solar power plant market.'

"While Trump’s war on solar is among the factors putting a crimp on the small scale, residential solar industry of late, high-demand energy stakeholders are still gobbling up the clean kilowatts at a rapidfire pace." To ease its entry, "Canadian Solar [sized the modules at] the 2382 × 1134 × 30 millimeter industry-wide standard, coupled with an impressive output of up to 670 Wp."

Among other advantages cited by Canadian Solar, the new module is designed for bifaciality, meaning that it can absorb and convert light hitting both sides of the panel. "Bifacial panels can be set in an upright position rather than the more familiar angled alignment, enabling them to double as fencing on farmland." Canadian Solar also notes that the new module is purpose-built to function efficiently in hotter climates, which is another opportunity springboard for solar developers.

Spectacularly, "its hot-climate design contributes to a low degradation rate, arriving at an output of more than 88.85% even after 30 years of operation." As for its US factories, in its Q1 report this year Canadian Solar highlighted the forthcoming expansion of its existing 5-gigawatt solar module factory in Texas, reaching 10 GW by years-end.

Besides evading the slings + arrows of a deranged president—a vertical orientation of modules makes them proof against hailstorms.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 25

Grist: “A solution to data center backlash? Put them in oil fields.” A new project in California’s oil country could dodge national controversies over energy + water usage + noise/light pollution.

Southern California oil field seeking AI tenant. “Most Americans loathe data centers…recent polling found that Democrats and Republicans alike would oppose having one in their neighborhood, and hundreds of communities across the country have fought against them, citing fears about noise, water contamination, and energy bills.” In just the past month, policymakers in New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Utah have proposed limits on the facilities.
A project unveiled this week in California’s Central Valley suggests a potential alternative. “California Resources Corporation, the state’s largest oil company, wants to build a 600,000-square-foot data center campus in the Elk Hills oil field about two hours north of Los Angeles.” Hopes to avoid the nationwide backlash from communities that have watched the outfits developing these sprawling operations swallow up farmland or install diesel generators near residential neighborhoods.
“More developers are proposing to build data centers in or near active oil and gas fields, which tend to sit far from densely populated areas and boast ready access to power.” These projects are seen as a way of juicing revenues for legacy producers, even as the California project is unfolding in a state that has been trying to phase out fossil fuels. Gotta love the contradictions here.
“By repurposing an existing industrial site, creating jobs and tax revenue in Kern County, utilizing dedicated on-site power, and employing one of the industry’s most water-efficient cooling systems, the project is designed to support California’s growing digital infrastructure needs while minimizing impacts on local communities,” said Chris Gould, the company’s chief sustainability officer and the head of its carbon capture venture.
Remember that when something sounds too good to be true—it usually is. Thus, litigation by Earthjustice + others is ramping up.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 24

CanaryMedia: "Is New England’s new hydropower transmission line paying off?" When the New England Clean Energy Connect [NECEC] transmission line started carrying electricity from Canada into Maine in January, supporters hailed the project as a triumph for renewable power.

Phase 1 + NECEC power lines from Canada. "Now, after nearly six months of operations, the early numbers raise questions about whether the project will be able to advance the region’s energy transition as much as advertised." Energy flow into New England is up just marginally, and there have been roughly 27 days when no power at all traveled on the new line.

"If current trends hold, New England will receive less hydropower this year over two transmission lines than it did over just one line in 2023 and previous years." Potentially putting further strain on the supply of Canadian hydropower is the Champlain Hudson Power Express, a transmission line that started sending electricity from Quebec into New York City this month.

In 2021, the transmission line through Maine was put on hold by a statewide referendum, until in 2023 a jury ruled the development could be restarted. "Two and a half years later, NECEC came online and started carrying the first electrons into New England." It’s certainly a notable achievement in a time when the administration has been doing all it can to stop progress on clean energy, including offshore wind—the cornerstone of the Northeast’s decarbonization plans.

There were some early hiccups with the line, the longest with it being de-energized for nearly two weeks at the end of May and beginning of June. “With any new transmission infrastructure, a period of optimization and fine-tuning is to be expected."

By my reckoning, the best optimization would be getting the current administration out of office lickety-split, so that we can put more electrons to work, and phase out molecules of hydrocarbons.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 23

ResourceInsights: "Here's comes the AI bailout: Why government stakes in AI companies are a sucker's bet." There is good reason to argue that AI based on current models is likely to be a much smaller and less impactful technology than advertised.

Supermajority US adults skeptical. "If the government is lured into taking an ownership stake in AI companies, it will be walking into a trap." The first clue is that the CEO of the most prominent AI company, OpenAI, proposed the idea to Trump early last year. Why would the top executive of the best-known AI company offer to dilute his wealth and the wealth of his shareholders to give the government a share? "Why would that CEO want the government looking over his shoulder as he runs his company?"

Unless of course he knows he is going to need a bailout. When a duplicitous CEO + a transactional, self-interested president shake hands—then the rest of us can look forward to paying the bill. Kurt Cobb argues there are 2 reasons for this outcome.

First, "the AI industry has convinced lawmakers and the current administration that AI is somehow the future of technology and therefore the industry (as opposed to the technology) cannot fail."

Second, "the AI industry's capital expenditures are the main thing driving the economy and the stock market and a bust among major industry players (again, as opposed to the technology) would lead to too much pain in pocketbooks and portfolios." Remember the phrase—'too big to fail?'

"Governments are actually very poor at making financial investment decisions, in part, because they are not set up for that." When the current AI bubble bursts, the federal government [could] be tempted to throw good money after bad to bail out its investment since the government has something private industry lacks, the power to tax and the ability to print money as needed.

"The entire global software industry had revenues of about $719 billion in 2025...for products that presumably work and have a marginal distribution cost close to zero." Aside from stringent regulation, I share Cobb's skepticism about the government getting any closer to AI than with a 10-foot pole.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 22

CleanTechnica: "Climate Solutions Need To Pass Three Tests Before They Deserve Policy Or Capital." A lot of transition analysis gives too much credit to technologies that can be made to work and not enough scrutiny to whether they matter.

Graphic of testing technologies. "The difference shows up across carbon capture hubs, synthetic fuel claims, small modular reactor schedules, cement decarbonization pathways, aviation fuel projections, ammonia shipping forecasts, grid storage proposals, critical-mineral panic stories, and hydrogen strategies." A process can work in a lab, run in a pilot, attract a grant, or look credible in a diagram and still fail as a useful pathway for climate, capital, or policy.

"The first test is technical, but not in the weak sense of asking whether something can be made to happen once, because many things can be made to happen once with enough money, attention, engineering talent, and tolerance for inconvenience." The harder question is whether the proposed solution holds together as science, engineering, operating system, and cost stack at the scale being claimed.

"The second test is competition." A pathway that survives its own engineering and cost stack still has to beat the alternatives after the full chain is counted. "Carbon dioxide captured at a stack is not carbon dioxide permanently stored." Ammonia at a production plant is not safe marine fuel available at the right port, on the right route, with trained crew, emergency response, insurance, and regulation.

"The third test is adoption." Even a technically coherent pathway that beats alternatives on paper has to pass through institutions, firms, workers, customers, regulators, voters, insurers, standards bodies, procurement systems, and supply chains. "It is where capital cost, downtime, permitting, safety rules, maintenance contracts, training, warranties, insurance, financing, and organizational competence determine whether deployment is likely."

Governments + investors can support learning without pretending that every first-of-a-kind project is a future pillar of the energy system. As the British would say, 'hear, hear.'

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 21

CanaryMedia: “Rooftop solar is in for a tough few years in the US.” Trump + GOP lawmakers removed the beneficial tax credits for solar arrays on homes + businesses, with predictable results.

Obliteration of subsidies supporting rooftop solar. “Nearly one year ago,…Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law and eliminated a 30% federal tax credit for rooftop solar systems…[and] battery backup systems, which homeowners increasingly pair with photovoltaics.” This was a major blow to an industry that was already struggling because of high interest rates, tariffs, and [an idiotic] seismic policy change in California, the state that has led the nation on rooftop solar adoption.”

People who buy rooftop solar systems are mainly looking for relief from high utility bills, and solar installations are already more expensive in the U.S. than in many other countries. “Residential solar costs $2.58 per watt, on average, compared with around $1 per watt in Australia, a global leader in the space.”

Still, there are some glimmers of hope. “In California, the residential solar market is set to rebound this year and grow by 17% from last year.”
Meanwhile, Florida, the No. 2 state [Texas is No. 1] for rooftop solar, is set to see its installations grow by a staggering 62% in 2026. “Some combination of ample sun, high awareness of solar, and rising utility bills has enabled the clean energy tech to keep growing even though a significant slice of homeowners already have their own panels.”
Meanwhile, although its potential is much more modest, a far smaller and more accessible form of residential solar is sweeping the nation: balcony solar. “They can’t deliver the same wattage as a classic rooftop setup, but they’re relatively cheap and available to renters—not just homeowners.”

There is a realistic possibility that balcony solar will raise awareness, make homegrown solar available to renters, + this parallel boom may help offset the bust for rooftop arrays.

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 20

MauiNow: "San Andreas fault reaches highest stress level in 1,000 years." Recent research by University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa scientists found tectonic stress along San Andreas + San Jacinto fault systems in Southern California reached— some places exceeded— highest levels seen in past 1,000 yrs.

Graphic of Cajon Pass. "Study, recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, has direct implications for seismic hazard assessments in one of the most densely populated and infrastructure-critical corridors in the United States."

“Our results show that stress levels on multiple fault segments are now at or above the highest values seen in the past millennium and that the region may be capable of a large through-going rupture involving both fault systems,” said lead author Liliane Burkhard. “We also found that Cajon Pass may act as an ‘earthquake gate’: sometimes blocking large ruptures from crossing between the faults, and sometimes allowing them to pass through and involve both systems in a single event."

Researchers built a physics-based computer model that simulates how stress builds up and releases along the southern San Andreas + San Jacinto fault systems, including at Cajon Pass, which is a critical junction between the two fault systems. "Scientists fed the model a 1,000-year record of earthquake history of the region reconstructed from geological evidence, such as radiocarbon dating of displaced sediments and tree-ring records."

"Right now, with stress at historically high levels across the region and more than 160 years elapsed since the last major rupture, the system is in a critically loaded state." Clearly, focus must be on retrofitting structural braces into homes, schools, other public buildings, bridges of all types, + training of first-responders.

Here's a solid recommendation: Have shoes at the bedside so that you won't need to step barefoot on broken glass in the dark. How's that for a visualization?

S. W. Lawrence, MD@swlawrence· Jun 19

ColumbiaClimate: "New Research Indicates That in the Future, Trees May Store Less Carbon Than Expected." During photosynthesis, plants absorb carbon dioxide [CO2] from the air and then use sunlight to power the conversion of CO2 and water into sugar.