Thomas Karlsson
@thomaskarlsson
Swedish amateur astronomer and Ukraine supporter.
MetOffice HadCRUT5 global temp. to June 2026 + trend forward, compared to 1850-1900. Current temperature: 1.42 (June 1.42) Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.20 deg/decade 1970-2009: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.32 2015-2026: 0.26 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2029, 2.0 in 2047.
Berkeley Earth global temp. to July 2026 + trend forward, compared to 1850-1900. Current temperature: 1.47 (July 1.56) Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.21 deg/decade 1970-2009: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.36 2015-2026: 0.30 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2027, 2.0 in 2044.
R And is a classic mira and has been observed by SAAF/V for a long time. Here is a phase diagram with our observations since 1971. The average period from our data is 409.74 days.
From my database of maxima for mira variables. R Nor is on my list of miras with period changes. R Nor is special in several ways. It is one of the few that has double maxima, and it has both a meandering and increasing period. More miras at var.saaf.se/mirainfooc.php
AM Dra is one of the brightest mira among the SAAF's collection of 50 forgotten miras. The brightness of our observations varies between magnitude 9.3 and 16.6 and with a period of 329.1 days. The star was discovered in 1955 by Edward H. Geyer at the Bamberg Observatory.
Berkeley Earth global temperature to June 2026 + trend forward, compared to 1850-1900. Current temperature: 1.47 (June 1.49) Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.21 deg/decade 1970-2009: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.36 2015-2026: 0.30 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2028, 2.0 in 2044.
MetOffice HadCRUT5 global temperature to May 2026 + trend forward, compared to 1850-1900. Current temperature: 1.42 (May 1.37) Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.20 deg/decade 1970-2009: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.32 2015-2026: 0.26 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2029, 2.0 in 2047.
R Ari is a short-period mira discovered by Friedrich Wilhelm Argelander in 1857. Here is a phase diagram with SAAF/V observations since 1990, with my observations in yellow. Based on our data, its period is calculated to be 186.45 days.
Det är ett spännande ämne, om och hur en ljuskurva kan kopplas till olika egenskaper. Har läst några artiklar av S Uttentaheler om detta. Fast mina diagram ovan är inte ljuskurvor utan O-C och perioddiagram. Jag har också detaljerade medelljuskurvor för alla 510 miror. Här är den för S Sex.
From my database of maxima for mira variables. S Sex is the brightest mira in Sextans. It is also on my list of meandering miras. Since 1890 its period has varied between 251 and 269 days with 40 to 60 year intervals. More miras at var.saaf.se/mirainfooc.php
Berkeley Earth global temperature to May 2026 + trend forward compared to 1850-1900. Current temperature: 1.41 (May 1.35) Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.21 deg/decade 1970-2010: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.36 2015-2026: 0.29 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2029, 2.0 in 2046.
WZ Del is another star among the SAAF's 50 forgotten miras. It was discovered in 1930 by Cuno Hoffmeister. Not much observational history exists for the star before SAAF began observing it in 2012. Its period, currently 259.1 days, is quite short and appears to be stable.
R Tri is a short-period and bright mira. It was discovered in 1890 by the English amateur astronomer THEC Espin and independently by Williamina Flemming at Harvard. The phase diagram shows 569 observations made by SAAF/V from 1990 onwards. From these observations the average period is 265.16 days.
From my database of maxima for mira variables. T Scl is on my list of miras with changing period. It is also an example of their unpredictability. 1890-2010 it had an increasing period. But after 120 years the pattern has changed and now the period is decr. More miras at var.saaf.se/mirainfooc.php
Met Office HadCRUT5 global temperature to March 2026 + current trend forward. Current temperature: 1.42 Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.20 deg/10 years 1970-2010: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.33 2015-2026: 0.26 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2029, 2.0 in 2047.
Berkeley Earth global temperature to April 2026 + current trend forward. Current temperature: 1.41 Rate of increase: 1970-2026: 0.21 deg/10 years 1970-2010: 0.19 2010-2026: 0.36 2015-2026: 0.30 With current trend, 1.5 degrees will be reached in 2030, 2.0 in 2047.
WX Del is one of the SAAF's 50 Forgotten Miras. It was discovered by Cuno Hoffmeister in 1930. WX Del is the longest-period mira of the 50 on the SAAF's list. The current period is 528.8 days, close to the average period since 1897 of 528.3 days. The diagram shows SAAF observations 2012-2026.
R Boo is a bright and fairly short-period mira. Here is a phase diagram with observations made within SAAF/V 1990-2025. Most are visual (black) but also some photometric with V-filter (green). The star's period is quite stable with a variation between 222 and 226 days during the observed time.
From my database of maxima for mira variables. AF Car is on my list of meandering miras. Its period has since 1896 varied between 425 and 456 days. The star has not been observed much before the 1970s so much of its older history has been taken from #DASCH. More miras at var.saaf.se/mirainfooc.php
V2330 Cyg is a mira among the SAAF's 50 forgotten miras. Discovered by Mike Collins, UK, in 2000 and independently by Lennart Dahlmark, Sweden, in 2001. The average period since 1899 is 382.5 days. Its current period is similar, 383.6 days.
Alpha Ori or Betelgeuse, the orange-red supergiant in Orion that could go supernova any day in the next 100,000 years. In 2020, the star had a sharp dip in brightness. Below are SAAF's visual observations of Betelgeuse since 2018.
V2331 Cyg is an deep eclipsing binary that was misclassified as an irregular variable. In 2012, members of SAAF/V discovered its true nature. After a few months of observations, the correct period could be determined. We also wrote a short article in JAAVSO about the star.
From my database of maxima for mira variables. T UMi is a former mira that is now classified as semi-regular. Until 1970 it was a normal mira with a period of 315 days. Then its period quickly dropped to under 200 days before it stopped pulsating regularly. More miras at var.saaf.se/mirainfooc.php
Here is a graph showing Swedish solar observations since 2020. Gray crosses are individual observations, the blue line shows the mean value per month and the red line is a moving average over 12 months. Maximum solar activity was reached in October 2024.
V2072 Cyg is another mira among SAAF's 50 Forgotten Miras. The variable was discovered by the Swedish amateur astronomer Lennart Dahlmark in 1982 with the designation LD 55. The period has been fairly stable since 1895 with a mean value of 318.6 days. Since 2012 it is 316.8 days.
I have used data from Berkeley's new climate model with 0.25 deg resolution and made a new temperature forecast. The temp in this model is slightly lower than in their previous 1 deg model. The global temp now reaches +1.5 deg in 2028, +2 in 2044, if the temp increase continues at the same rate.
From my database of maxima for mira variables. T Peg is on my list of meandering miras. The star was discovered in 1863 by John Hind. According to my calculations, its period has varied between 360 and 386 days or 7.1%. More miras at var.saaf.se/mirainfooc.php
V742 Lyr is an R Coronae Borealis, or RCB, variable. A rather unusual type characterized by irregular, sudden and very deep drops from the star's normal brightness. V742 has been observed within SAAF since 2012 and is now recovering from its most recent decline.
V750 Cyg is one of the SAAF's 50 Forgotten Miras. Discovered 1938 by the Russian astronomer Pavel Parenago. The average period is 428.4, but the current period is more like 421 days. This makes the phase diagram quite fluffy and the maximum point shifted. It also has a hump on the ascending branch.
Berkeley has just released temperature data for 2025. From their data, my own calculation of the Earth's average temperature with a 21-year moving average and a forecast to 2050. +1.5 degrees is now predicted to occur in 2027, one year later than the forecast showed last year.