herman mark schwartz

@thunen

periodic posting on political economy issues, mostly charts, some shirts, weekly kittens. Sic semper tyrannis. States vs Markets 5th edition now out:

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Bluesky

Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir thunen.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 12d

#caturday Ran into this young woman and her cat out for a walk

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 14d

2025 tax bill cuts to ACA (obamacare) subsidies -> 2.6m people (so far!) dropping coverage as premiums went up 25-100%. but federal law requires hospitals to treat anyone coming to an emergency room regardless of insurance status. "solve for the equilibrium" as tyler cowen says. WSJ 31 July 2026

The Rising Number of Uninsured Patients Starts to Hit Hospitals
Millions of Americans dropped Affordable Care Act plans after higher subsidies expired and now struggle to pay
wall street journal 31 july 2026

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 19d

#caturday maybe offsets my earlier posts? but anyway the best fosters ever (2017), making sure i don't go anywhere

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 19d

the 'good news' is that the bad news has some good news aspects: russian refining capacity being zero'd out and hormuz blocked, less oil consumption; more wildfires = more smoke and less insolation. yep, i'm really reaching here.

a chart of average ocean and land temperatures since 1900 showing a steep rise (1.4c) after 1975

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 22d

this is a big fish, small pond phenomenon. EU producers (and JP) dominate auto sector profits, but the auto sector generates relatively little profit compared to software, tech hardware, pharma, let alone oil (always big!) and finance.

share of cumulative profits of Forbes global 2000 firms 2005-2025 by sector

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 23d

even if only 1% has been skimmed, that's $130 million. 🌮 has famously said that he controls disbursements. kleptocracy gone wild. financial times 22 july 2026

The US has collected about $13bn of Venezuela’s oil money. Where is it?
Washington has given diverging accounts of where the earthquake-shattered country’s funds are going
financial times 22 july 2026

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 24d

where is count binface when we need him?

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 25d

Unsurprising finding that probably holds for the USA also @audieklotz.bsky.social

P21325 Female Promotions and the Academic Pipeline: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Manuel Bagues Milan Makany Giulia Vattuone Natalia Zinovyeva
Published: 23 Mar 2026

We study how faculty promotion decisions shape women's careers and the academic pipeline, using data from 4,000 Spanish university departments across all disciplines. We identify exogenous variation in promotions using the random assignment of evaluators to promotion committees between 2002 and 2008: applicants whose committees included a co-author or colleague were significantly more likely to qualify for promotion. We document two main findings. First, failing to obtain tenure has asymmetrically lasting consequences for women. Those who narrowly miss tenure are 57 percentage points less likely to be tenured fifteen years later, compared to 29 percentage points for men. Second, when women do obtain tenure, the effects extend well beyond their own careers: promoting a woman to Associate Professor increases female faculty by 1.5 members after 15 years, leads to six additional female PhD graduates over the following decade, and raises the number who subsequently remain in academia and reach tenured positions.

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 26d

#caturday Moar shelter kittens! They keep getting bigger

herman mark schwartz@thunen· 27d

NYTimes, 17 July 2026 (the one on the left, though there have been planets of things like the one on the right, just not so succinct.)

Should Epstein’s Friends Be Punished? An Elite Harvard Club Is Torn.
At Harvard, students, alumni and professors debate whether a storied campus group should cut ties with one of Jeffrey Epstein’s closest associates, and whether Harvard itself should do the same.

Here’s why it would be a mistake to do anything that inconveniences rich assholes, by some rich asshole

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jul 11

everyday, john brunner's 1960s/70s novels look more and more prescient. Sheep Look Up is 1972, try your public library. (Stand on Zanzibar is better crafted though). wall street journal 10 july 2026

Explosive Diarrhea Outbreak Continues to Grow as Authorities Race to Find Source
Illnesses tied to the parasite have been reported across more than 30 states and have stumped officials trying to trace it
wall street journal 10 july 2026

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jul 11

#caturday ! Pregnant white cat named "goofball" had her kittens at the shelter! Hungry hungry

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jul 10

real median income grew about 17% from 2000-2024, so let's be generous and round up to 20%. median housing prices (real) grew as below. this math does not work, except at the top of the income distribution. build moar housing! h/t ritholtz

map of the USA showing the percentage increase in real median housing price from 2000 to 2025

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jul 9

back to what i came here for in the first place. profit shares for the Forbes Global 2000 by HQ of firms. left, cumulative profits, 2005-2025, 4413 firms. right, just 2025, 2001 firms. US share grew. China + HK, not so much. the basis for profits without production and production without profits...

cumulative profits by firm HQ location, 2005-2025, Forbes global 2000 firms

profits by firm HQ location, 2025, Forbes global 2000 firms

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jul 4

#caturday Those new kittens from 3 weeks ago have grown!

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 30

Guns have rights. Dollars have rights. Human beings... They don't have rights. NYT 30 June 2026

Supreme Court Allows States to Bar Transgender Athletes From Girls’ Sports. Considers overturning ban on assault rifles. OKs unlimited campaign finance by outside groups

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 27

#caturday More shelter kittens! Maybe you'd like to donate to help them evanstonanimalshelter.net/donate-funds/

Standard issue cats with 5 kittens, close up

Standard issue cats with 5 kittens, mom is sitting up

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 23

but i was told by Trichet (in 2010) that it was all about productivity and fiscal discipline...

It is very important to understand – and it has perhaps not yet been sufficiently understood – that the developments we are currently witnessing in Europe’s economy have to do with the ‘Economic’ functions of Economic and Monetary Union. They have essentially three origins: unsound fiscal policies in a number of Member States; inappropriate macroeconomic policies in a number of Member States; and overall an inadequate system of surveillance by all Member States.

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 20

#caturday More shelter kittens. Folks, spay & neuter... But they are very cuddly

A very young kitten, looking s little disheveled

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 19

for a different view, the totals, where foreign private holdings very much outweigh official holdings, and where the trend line looks quite different. granted much of this is valuation change from the stock market. but people want returns & historically the US market delivers! $trillions. TIC data

a chart of Foreign holdings of US debt and equity from 2020 to april 2026. blue line is everything but long term treasury bonds. orange is long term treasury bonds.

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 12

catnip for @michaelpettis.bsky.social we demand domestic demand! or at least exports so we can scratch out some profits in this heavily economy of scale industry. WSJ 12 June 2026

Everyone Loves Chinese Cars, Except the Chinese
Domestic market shrinks 20%, hitting carmakers’ profits and pushing them to export more

a chart showing Chinese automobile sales inside china rising until october 2025 and then declining substantially

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 12

#caturday Bonus! New shelter photo. Kid says, "I was holding one and the other decided he wanted some cuddles also"

A person holding two standard issue cats

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 12

#caturday It's early bc I am very busy tomorrow! Two of the Dec 24 gang of four fosters decided my shoulder was a bed/perch

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 7

The most recent foster

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 7

hahaha catposting is downstream of fostering kittens, which is the real reward. along with vounteermaxxing.

a standard issue cat sleeping on someone's lap

herman mark schwartz@thunen· Jun 6

#caturday Cats at a feral cat shelter in a forest reserve. We met six, mostly friendly! Sorry about the photo quality.

herman mark schwartz@thunen· May 29

wages & profits necessarily mirror images; wage share at historical lows at precisely (and probably causally) employment risks are highest and welfare state support is lowest

herman mark schwartz@thunen· May 24

is correlation causation? asking for a friend. WSJ 24 May 2026

The Stock Market Has Never Been So Good When People Have Felt So Bad
Stocks are partying like it’s 1999. Americans haven’t been this gloomy in 70 years.

herman mark schwartz@thunen· May 23

#caturday Moar shelter kittens care of (and in care of) younger child. It's adoption season folks!

herman mark schwartz@thunen· May 22

on the labor force participation: poverty -> less aggregate demand -> fewer jobs. map 1 = % on food stamps map 2 =literacy map 3 = poverty rate map 4 = premature death