Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” @t0nyyates. Starting something new. tomas.hirst[at]crosscurrentcapitallimited.com
Trieste is exactly as Jan Morris describes it - complete with an overhanging air of melancholy that rather adds to its dilapidated beauty. I highly recommend reading her book whilst visiting, it really added to my appreciation of the place.
Keep walking past this place and I can’t look at it without thinking “we’ve got the…”
NB it's not *just* about the volume but *where* the new supply is hitting the curve and the price discounts issuers are having to offer to get these mega-deals off their books
The further out the curve you go the more that an increase in that volatility assumption impacts pricing and therefore the wider the gap to asset swaps become. Think of this as the reverse of the convenience yield phenomenon, that drove the opposite pricing dynamic in the past.
But, well, all is not really as it first appears. Because (as I've been through in a previous thread) not all spreads are telling the same story. OAS (spreads over duration-matched government bonds adjusted for embedded options) are indeed extremely tight, but asset swap spreads are tight...ish
Credit spreads are tight! And they've stayed near all time tights for multiple years. That's...not what we've tended to see in the historical data - spreads should be mean-reverting and drift with the macro through the cycle
OK, I'm going to revisit my credit strategist rabbit hole to try to answer the question "can US IG spreads stay trading at the 10th percentile forever?" so bear with me (I'll try to keep this brief)
ETF options implied spread distributions across US corporate credit getting close to extremes
The entirety of Trump’s second term in office has basically been everyone involved taking this to heart
One doesn't want to be too mean, but the genius strategist of his generation really said this?
I’m legit! Got my license and everything kojira.github.io/bluesky-lice...
For the absolute sickos that we’re asking for it, I added a third dimension