According to the HUXt model, the fast solar wind from the large transequatorial coronal hole may arrive sometime on July 20. With solar wind speeds projected to reach above 700 km/s, we could see G1-G2 storming. If you have smoke-free skies, you could see auroral displays this week.

The issue with seeing auroral displays right now is not so much related to space weather but more so terrestrial weather--smoke from Canadian wildfires is making it hard to see anything in the night sky for much of the northern U.S.

A very large, snaking coronal hole is almost directly facing Earth. Fast wind from the "hook" in the southern hemisphere may reach us as early as tomorrow (July 20). Mid-latitude auroral displays are possible along with minor-moderate geomagnetic storms in the coming nights.

Watching the aurora through snow-laden black spruce trees in Fairbanks, Alaska

It was great connecting and forming new collaborations the researchers and students at the meeting. I am also grateful to have been elected the 2026-2028 GEM student representative to bring the needs of the students to the forefront of the GEM community.

This past week, I attended the 2026 GEM Workshop in Portland, Maine and presented a student tutorial on the aurora, a presentation on the AurorEye portable all-sky imager, and delivered a poster and oral presentation on the latest developments on my auroral beads research.

We will need to rely on coronal holes and spontaneous dimmings/filament eruptions until the farside regions rotate back onto the Earth-facing disk.

The sunspot number is crashing: we are down from around 150 spots earlier in the month to well under 50 today. With this decline is the decline in chances for major solar flares and Earth-directed solar storms/CMEs.

Excited to get back to work after a very successful conference this past week. I will share takeaways and a summary soon! Here are a couple photos from a lovely sunset on Peaks Island last night.

An impressive, large shepherd's hook-shaped coronal hole is moving to directly face Earth soon! This extended area of open magnetic fields is sending fast solar wind into space. Eventually this will sweep over Earth, maybe in the next 3-4 days, triggering minor-moderate geomagnetic storms.

Beautiful aroral substorm right in the village of Beaver, Alaska which has a population of 63 north of Fairbanks.

Walking around the village of Beaver, Alaska during a massive auroral substorm.

Intense substorm over a snow-covered Beaver, Alaska

One of the reddest auroras I have ever seen.

Bright aurora over a small cabin in Beaver, Alaska

Earth-facing activity is a bit dull at the moment, but the farside is catching my eye today with multiple large sunspot clusters which are producing minor M-flares on a daily basis. #heliophysics

Rapid, flowing river of aurora in the sky over Beaver, Alaska

Ripping auroral display over houses in Beaver, Alaska (population 63), north of Fairbanks.

Amazing display of aurora over Beaver, Alaska during a substorm

In case you're wondering how unlucky we have been, take a look at all the recent CMEs in the HUXt catalog and how many of them are actually Earth-directed. In case it's not obvious, we've received SCRAPS compared to basically everywhere BESDIES Earth. Lol.

Here is what HUXt thinks about the two CMEs currently modeled to impact Earth over the coming days. The first CME which may arrive around July 12 at 12 UT has a ~73% chance making it. The second one, ~53%. Both CMEs have HIGH uncertainty greater than +/- 10 hr in timing, so keep that in mind.

Ensemble modeling gives a range from July 12 20 UT to July 13 14 UT. As you can see, there is a large spread in arrival time scenarios.

There was a small CME initiated by a C6 flare which has Earth-directed components. I am not super optimistic about arrival, but models are forecasting an impact at July 13 ~2 UT.

Heading off to Portland, Maine today! Will be there for the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) workshop giving a student tutorial talk on auroras + a couple other research talks and a poster! Can’t wait to start this fun week! Preview my tutorial talk: zenodo.org/records/2130...

Powerful aurora over Beaver, Alaska - population 63.

On the Earth-facing disk, solar activity remains pretty minor, but flip the Sun around 180 degrees, and it's a different story! The farside is teeming with active regions, some old and some new. Ex-AR 4479 and 4478 are seen towards the east (left of frame), but there is new growth as well.

A minor CME may impact Earth around 11 UT on July 12 as modeled by NOAA SWPC. No storm watch has been issued as a result of this prediction, and I agree that even minor geomagnetic storm conditions are an optimistic outcome. We'll see, though! Space weather can surprise...

There are a number of "holes" on the Sun--coronal holes--and at least one is affecting Earth right now with solar wind speeds on our upstream solar wind monitors pushing 650 km/s, about 2x higher than usual. Coronal holes may look disconcerting in these images, but they are nothing to worry about.

Here are some current images of the Sun's farside from Solar Orbiter showing a number of active regions, including a beefy AR just over the eastern limb as seen in this view.

It appears that around 1020 UT, we have began to see coronal hole influences with the solar wind polarity switching to towards (-), the same as the coronal hole. Bt is also around 10 nT with speeds climbing to > 500 km/s.