Multiple flood waves along the Guadalupe River in Texas. Reminds me of an eyewall, then eye, then other side of the eyewall.

Now the third highest flood level on record along the Guadalupe River at Comfort, TX. About 1.5 feet above the July 4, 2025, crest, there, and behind only the floods of 1869 and 1978.

FWIW, NASA's GEOS model is forecasting two more southward plunges of wildfire smoke: 1) This weekend 2) Next Tue-Thu The second one could at least bring some surface smoke into parts of the South.

A morning sunrise here in the Milwaukee suburbs more along the lines of what I saw in a trip to Beijing over 10 years ago. #Codepurple #coughcough

This smoke episode the next couple of days won't be the only one. With NW flow aloft forecast to be reinforced in the E. US, we could see another smoke episode this weekend, then again next week. It's a "catch 22" we've seen in recent summers. Heat relief, but smoke-tapping pattern.

The US heat dome, a northern Quebec gyre, and some smoke tapped into New England. 🛰️: NOAA, CIRA_CSU

They may come up just short, but two typical US "cold spots" will flirt with extremely rare 100s today. Int'l Falls, MN ("Nation's Icebox") last hit 100˚ almost 103 years ago. Marquette, MI (NWS office location) has not recorded a triple digit high in records since 1961.

Jarring to see a forecast high in a location that hasn't recorded a 110˚+ high that isn't in the South. Billings, MT all-time record is 108˚. Not to mention a potential all-time record tie in Salt Lake City Sunday.

Admittedly, just one run of one operational model that often is strongest with ridges, so all typical disclaimers apply and mainly for entertainment purposes. But....600dm ridge, anyone?

Lala, Moke, Elida and Fausto ahead? Get used to this in 2026, at least on the Pacific side.

I think this Paris forecast is one reason why "cancel for any reason" travel insurance is $ well spent. 🥵 weather.com/weather/tend...

Hopefully not a case of Yutu deja vu with Typhoon Bavi ahead. (Images: Tropical Tidbits, UW-CIMSS)

Dear FIFA...please consider rescheduling this July 4th match. Torrid heat, humidity, not to mention a chance of t-storms (possibly strong?) in Philly. No amount of hydration breaks will help Saturday.

Two years ago today, Hurricane Beryl's eye encompassed all of Grenada's Carriacou Island while it was at Cat. 4 intensity.

As today brings June to a close, it looks like 2026 will be the warmest first six months of a year on record from parts of the Southern Plains into the Southwest, including Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Salt Lake City. (Data: SERCC, Prism)

These are current dew points in the UK. That's a 74˚ at London Heathrow and 60s dew points into southern Scotland. Record-smashing June heat wave for UK with Deep South USA mugginess.

Preliminary reports of and confirmed tornado counts, by state, for 2026 through Sunday. That's not a misprint. Illinois is 4x the total for Oklahoma, so far.

Looks like that puts a wrap on this morning's Midwest derecho. Looks like a roughly 360 mile long swath of t-storm wind damage, high winds over about 7 hours from near Storm Lake, IA to central IL. 5 reports of 75+ mph gusts separated by ~ 75 mi. in IA.

Quite a contrast. Some near or minor-level river flooding forecast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. And some lingering "low water" river levels in the rest of northern Florida.

One man was killed after being hit by a tree during yesterday morning's thunderstorms in Des Moines, IA. A reminder that, on average, more are killed in the U.S. from tree falls in high winds than from lightning. weather.com/science/weat...

Almost 1,500 reports of severe weather have been received by the NWS since Sunday. Wednesday and Thursday were 2 of the 4 most active days for severe weather so far in 2026 (each with over 400 reports). May was "meh", but "June is June-ing".

Over 900 reports of severe weather across the nation, mainly in the Plains and Midwest since Sunday. Wed-Wed night was a top 5 most active 24-hour period of the year, so far, per SPC data. Since "June's gonna June", another round or two of severe weather is expected today in the Midwest.

Wrapping up one of the strangest springs I can recall in Wisconsin... Milwaukee had its record driest May, besting a record that had stood for 141 years. That followed its record wettest April, which obliterated its previous record by over 2 inches.

As you'd expect this far out in time before a low has even formed yet, many track possibilities are on the table for next week, including close to southern Mexico's Pacific coast and potentially the first hurricane of 2026. (Gfx: Weathernerds)

Tale of two extremes Tuesday. Record May high in Philly. Record May low in Rawlins, WY.

We have been fairly lucky so far in May, on average, the nation's most active month for tornadoes. That luck may run out for some in the central US from this weekend into early next week.

Unlike the Atlantic Basin, it could be one impressive hurricane season on the Pacific side. And the likely strong El Niño is just one reason why. Perspective: weather.com/storms/hurri...

1 supercell 2 EF3 tornadoes Almost 67 miles of damage over 1 hour, 45 minutes (Per NWS-Jackson, MS damage survey)

So far, NWS has surveyed 7 Mississippi tornadoes from Wednesday, including two long-track EF3s. The Purvis tornado is still yet to be surveyed, so the estimated count for now is "at least 8".

ECMWF's latest May 1 ensemble forecast still bullish on a strong (super?) El Niño by summer or early fall.