Yardeni Research
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Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 20, 2026) DeepSeek fears are back. Moonshot's 2.8T-parameter Kimi K3 model spooked markets Friday, compounding Korea margin-call pressure on chips. The SOXX and S&P 500 Semis index could slide 12% more to key technical support.
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 19, 2026) CQQQ has bounced from its low but still trades at a fraction of QQQ over any long horizon. China tech has sat out the AI rallies reshaping US, South Korean, and Taiwanese markets. What would it take to change that?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 19, 2026) South Korea's KOSPI surged after leveraged ETFs on Samsung and SK Hynix launched in May, then collapsed. Margin calls forced 426B won in liquidations in 10 days. The BOK hiked to 2.75%. What comes next for Korean equities?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 19, 2026) Manufacturing momentum is building. The NY and Philly Fed indexes averaged 28.5 in July, the highest since 2022. The national ISM likely follows suit. Are we seeing a durable industrial rebound?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 19, 2026) A 89.4% share of S&P 500 companies with positive forward earnings growth has coincided with past cyclical peaks. That broadens the bull, it does not end it. Which sectors stand to benefit most from the rotation?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 19, 2026) The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.50% — right in the middle of what we call the old normal range of 4.00%-5.00%. Is this consolidation a floor, a ceiling, or simply equilibrium?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 19, 2026) The VIX stays low when credit stays calm. Corporate high-yield spreads remain compressed even as private credit worries circulate — a notable disconnect. What would it take for spread widening to finally bleed into equity volatility?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 17, 2026) No wage-price spiral this time. Unit labor cost inflation has cooled to 0.5% y/y as of Q1-2026, a stark contrast to the previous inflation episode. Productivity growth deserves much of the credit. How durable is this trend?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 16, 2026) A record $903.8B in US equities bought by foreign investors over the past year. That would be bullish news, except they have a pattern of peaking at exactly the wrong time. Are we near a top?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 16, 2026) June PPI and CPI both came in cooler than expected, easing inflation fears. Fed funds futures have shifted to pricing in one rate hike over the next 12 months, not two. Does this change your Fed outlook?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 16, 2026) Oil at $85 looks calm on the surface, but the math gets complicated fast. Rerouted exports and soft Chinese demand explain the subdued price. What happens if the conflict drags into winter when inventories are already depleted?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 8, 2026) We view the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks as a buying opportunity. Their meltup over the past three years has been well supported by their earnings (chart). The S&P 500 Semiconductor industry's forward P/E was 17.4 yesterday.
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (July 6, 2026) Then vs. now: the 1990s tech meltup was FOMO-fueled speculation. Today's S&P 500 IT sector re-rating reflects FEMO — fabulous earnings momentum. Sentiment drove the last peak. Fundamentals are driving this one. Can earnings keep delivering?
Markets are riding fabulous earnings momentum heading into this season. Ed Yardeni discusses the high expectations driving the current rally on CNBC.
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (June 25, 2026) The Strait of Hormuz reopening returned supply to market and sent Brent crude sharply lower. Worth noting: oil had already been in a bear market since mid-2022 on soft China demand. How much further does crude fall now?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (June 8, 2026) S&P 500 Materials ranks fifth in ytd performance at 9.9%, but its 2026 earnings story may be underappreciated — a 39.7% EPS growth forecast puts it third among all sectors. Are investors paying enough attention?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (June 4, 2026) The manufacturing prices-paid index hit 82.1 last month while services reached 71.3, a nearly three-year high. Tariffs, energy costs, and supply disruptions are all pushing in the same direction. How much of this filters into CPI?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (June 1, 2026) The IPO pipeline for AI's biggest names could rival the entire past year of equity issuance at $232B. History shows the market has done more — $450B in 2021. Is investor appetite there today?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 31, 2026) Strip out China and EM surges 39%. Strip out Korea and Taiwan too and EM is down 2.5% ytd. Concentration this extreme raises real questions about what emerging markets exposure even means anymore. How are you navigating it?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 31, 2026) Consensus EPS growth estimates keep climbing. Q1-2026 is now tracking 19.3% y/y, up from a 12.5% low in April. Q4-2026 sits at a remarkable 24.5%. Are analysts getting more confident, or getting ahead of themselves?
Ed Yardeni tells Bloomberg that US stocks aren't in a bubble—they're powered by fabulous earnings momentum he calls FEMO, driving the market's basic thrust higher.
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 23, 2026) Exuberance check: S&P 500 long-term earnings growth expectations surged to 21.9%, a record outside the pandemic era. What's driving the optimism, and can fundamentals support it?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 23, 2026) Nine quantum computing companies just received $2B in federal CHIPS Act investment, sending their stocks surging. The mechanism is notable: the government takes equity, not just issues grants.
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) Initial jobless claims just hit their lowest level since 1969. Layoffs remain remarkably subdued, and continuing claims are falling too. How long can the labor market hold at these historic lows?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) US crude exports may be stepping up to fill the supply void left by Arabian Gulf blockades. Can American producers realistically bridge that gap?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) High tech now accounts for 55% of all nonresidential capital spending — a record high as of Q1-2026. Businesses are betting heavily on digital over physical. Is this shift structural or still just an AI-driven sprint?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 28, 2026) The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry now accounts for a record 41.9% and 47.1% of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector's market capitalization and forward earnings. Do you think this is sustainable?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 28, 2026) Is the global stock market boom partly attributable to the resilience of earnings as technological innovations boost profit margins worldwide?
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 26, 2026) Bank loans and leases are growing 7.1% y/y, the fastest pace in ~3 years. Traditional lenders are picking up the slack, which is why private credit stress is unlikely to spill into a broader credit crunch.
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 21, 2026) Before writing off the labor market, consider this: ADP's four-week average through April 4 hit 54,000+ jobs per week, a 2026 high. Could April's official payrolls report catch Wall Street off guard?