Jonathan Todd
@yontodd
📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian.
Rotten Tomatoes (29%) says it grossed $7.3M, so I'm like 1 of 39 people who can make this claim www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bones
Retiring my Duolingo streak learning French at 1,622 (started 6-Feb-22). Probably should have done this 2+ years ago, as there are significantly better/more efficient ways to learn. A good way to start and make sure you're committed to learning, but not as helpful beyond that...
I think just by definition it's slower to hit the website than the API. This Google page speed test shows ~2.4 seconds for a new piece of info to hit the Trump Truth Social page vs. (I'd estimate) 100-200 ms to hit via the API. A lifetime for an algo... pagespeed.web.dev/analysis/htt...
Also... First, Harold's should be *the* food item that visitors to Chicago try, not italian beef, sausage, etc. Second, it should be from one of these locations - definitely not West Loop or Wicker Park
$SPCX bonds a source of funds for the new $AMZN issuance www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I was walking in Boston earlier and saw a few familiar faces #AllezLesBleus
Somebody willing to put their name to a 50 bp cut is actually a "Fed's gotta hike" indicator
Just be careful with the latest BofA FMS because the survey period ended last week and events since then mean it's probably stale
I'm definitely going to start calling markets/econ charts that look like this a Cabo Verde formation
Not for nothing, but the fed funds rate is priced to be lower now than any time in the next 5 years
"Oppenheimer’s Ananth Muniyappa also noted that average LLM token costs are up 12% in a week and 65% since late February to $2.12 per million tokens, supporting the narrative around a shortage and raising the risk of demand curtailment if end-users begin to ration usage"
In case you want to bake this into your "Is the AI trade at the top" model
FF futures currently topping out at 31 bp of hikes for this cycle - but 50 certainly a conceivable threat
Other than a brief blip in August, market pricing nothing but a higher fed funds rate from here into 2031
The @ftweekend.com HTSI mag is typically aspirational - kind of like this weekend's feature that shows quite literally where I’m from
And the 2027 slate of voters doesn't lean as hawkish as the current roster
Market pricing 7.5 bp of hikes by 12 months from now. Powell sticking around has zero to do with this - that is, it probably wouldn't be very different if Powell were still Chair moving forward.
January Core PCE annualized paces... Fresh out the frying pan into the fire