Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Managing editor @. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

258 Following20,073 Followers3,032 Posts

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Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 19h

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 20h

Polls are now closed in Minnesota and Wisconsin!

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 20h

You've got three current or former congressmen doing well in their districts, and then one candidate with statewide appeal. #SCsen #mapporn

A map of election results in South Carolina.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 21h

Polls are now closed in Connecticut and Alabama!

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 21h

Oh, you can already tell this is going to be a fun one. #SCsen

A screenshot of the results of the South Carolina Senate primary showing several candidates doing well.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 22h

Polls are now closed in South Carolina and Vermont!

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 3d

My friend got the Blue Jays America 250 hat IRL

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 4d

Pollster matchup.

A screenshot of a baseball game score bug showing the pitcher Rasmussen facing the batter Emerson.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 7d

Here are the types of laws the Missouri constitution says are exempt from veto referenda.

A screenshot of the Missouri constitution that lists the exceptions to referenda as: "laws necessary for the immediate preservation of the public peace, health or safety, and laws making appropriations for the current expenses of the state government, for the maintenance of state institutions and for the support of public schools"

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 14d

Noticed this fan at the Fever-Storm game holding a sign of support for Sophie Cunningham.

A woman in a black shirt sitting courtside at a basketball game holding a sign saying, “Thank you Sophie for speaking up for girls”

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 22d

So far tonight at Fenway Park, the Wave started in the 4th inning, a dog won the fan dance-off, and someone drank a beer out of his shoe on the Jumbotron.

A baseball diamond beneath a green building.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 27d

The MLB app now has an option to show betting odds right there on the game card.

A screenshot of the MLB app showing odds for the Mets-Phillies game.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· 28d

The @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social midterm forecast is out: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026 And of note, they are incorporating prediction market data.

“We are always working to improve our process and products so this year we are including prediction market data from both Kalshi and Polymarket into our forecast. While these markets are relatively new, we believe there is signal to be gleaned from them, especially around the impact of breaking news that may take weeks to show up in polling.” according to Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ, Scott Tranter.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jul 9

State capitol #25. Doesn’t measure up to Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota, but better than most non-Midwestern capitols.

An intricately decorated interior of a rotunda

Another semicircular room with even more desks

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jul 7

Better late than never: Here's the box score for last month's Congressional Baseball Game, which Republicans won 11–2.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 30

Whoa, this is big. The SAVE tool was a big part of the Trump administration's efforts to root out alleged noncitizen voters.

A tweet from ProPublica reporter Jen Fifield reading, "NEW: The Trump administration has shut down a controversial Homeland Security tool it had touted as a way to find noncitizens who’d illegally registered to vote, ProPublica has learned."

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 23

I know this makes me sound like one of those crazy third-party people, but there do keep being these small signs that AI/tech could disrupt the two-party system…

A tweet that reads, "Pretty diverse political group at this anti-data center rally, including progressive U.S. House candidate Will Lawrence and Republican candidate for governor Perry Johnson."

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 20

And Morales goes down. Engling is a Jim Banks aide who doesn’t have a well-defined track record on elections. He’ll face Beau Bayh this fall in what could be a competitive race.

A tweet saying that Max Engling won the Republican nomination for Indiana secretary of state.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 20

Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales, who has faced various scandals and is quite unpopular, trails big in his quest for renomination at the IN GOP convention.

A screenshot of a tweet showing Max Engling with 715 votes, David Shelton with 543, and Diego Morales with 283.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 16

In 2024, the House had 203 🔴 seats (Trump≥6), 172 🔵 seats (Harris≥6), and 60 🟣 seats. If both parties gerrymander to the max, we could be looking at a 213 🔴, 205 🔵, 17 🟣 map.

A cartogram of the U.S. House map showing what could happen if both parties gerrymander to the max.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 11

I asked Rep. Sarah Elfreth before the game how she would respond to people who say Dems should refuse to play in the #CBG26 to protest the GOP's/Trump's actions. I wanted to wait until I got home to transcribe her response in full.

A quote: “If we can’t—as leaders, elected officials, members of the institution that is Congress—model good behavior and how to actually disagree without being disagreeable, how do I expect my constituents or the American people to do that?

Now, we have failed at that—let me be very clear. We dehumanize each other left and right. We fail to see to our own better angels, let alone someone else’s. This is one of those places where we can actually be human beings.

And again, I have to be an optimist in this work, so I have to believe that it can last beyond tonight, because that’s what the American people deserve. Even if we’re yelling and screaming at each other, I think we have to demonstrate that we can be adults in the room and actually focus on the challenges and problems of this country and come together for solutions. And if it starts at a baseball game, I’ll take it.”

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 11

What happens when you put a couple dozen thousand congressional staffers in the same place: #CBG26

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

And we’re underway! Republicans score 1 run in the top of the 1st, but Deluzio is able to limit the damage as Blake Moore fouls out. #CBG26

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

Nancy Pelosi is getting an award for being the #CBG26’s “Most Valuable Fan.”

A scoreboard showing Nancy Pelosi receiving a red white and blue baseball bat.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

Dem starting pitcher Chris Deluzio… and friend.

A baseball player in a blue uniform standing in front of a Thomas Jefferson mascot.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

The tarp is off the field! #CBG26

People in red shirts taking a tarp off a baseball field

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

Pat Ryan and Pat Harrigan show off the USA uniforms that both teams ordered this year for America 250. #CBG26

Two men in blue and red baseball uniforms that say “USA”

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

The grounds crew is working on getting the water off the tarp! #CBG26

People in red shirts sweeping water off a tarp on a baseball field

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 10

Greetings from the Congressional Baseball Game! It’s raining now, but it should clear up by 5 or 6, so currently expecting an on-time start. #CBG26

A baseball field under a cloudy sky with a tarp on it.

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot· Jun 9

Democrats’ final practice before tomorrow’s big #CBG26! Jimmy Panetta, Tim Kennedy, Tom Suozzi, and Suhas Subramanyam showed up to take their hacks.