I’m currently away on a two-week deployment with the National Guard, very little cell reception, but I was able to get the latest from the Modified @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule from the #JobsReport.

The 2026 election risk map and the map of swing districts is the same map. #EconSky

Hundreds of polls show material policy does very well. On divisive social policy, there is an opening to pivot, for instance trans-sports polls poorly, but trans-protections in employment and housing polls well. goodeconomics.substack.com/p/the-second-best-agenda #EconSky

Deciding about if and how much to fund the War in Iran is unlikely to garner bipartisan support, but maybe funding orphanages or planting more street side trees is still possible.

The trends are clear. Conservatives have lost the most ground on issues that voters care about most. And Democrats stand to gain by reprioritizing messaging to the rankings of public concern.

One thing I find helpful about spatial @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rules is they're really useful for fiscal diagnostics at-a-glance. 1/n

There are endless ways to modify a @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rule, each says something new about the #LaborMarket. The #JobsDay numbers on #Unemployment are reassuring in some ways, but @jaredb-econ.bsky.social is right to flag that people leaving the labor force. #EconSky #JobsDay

I'm very happy for Spike Lee, and all the longstanding Knicks fans.

With Elon Musk hitting trillionaire status, I’m revisiting this exchange with Prof. @jasonfurman.bsky.social When I raised Musk becoming a trillionaire in a CEO/median-worker pay debate, I was told it was tail risk. That tail risk arrived fast. We need better solutions—and new economic thinking.

The unemployment figures continue to strengthen. Modified @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rules by location and other metrics also show improvement. But similar to 1990, even as headline figures improve, oil shocks/affordability can keep people economically discontent. #EconSky #JobsDay #JobsReport

Creating @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rules by county shows unique local patterns. Typically lower-income areas are pro-cyclical and experience downturns sooner, with higher-income areas being slower/more accurate. The current moment has real regional weakness in the labor market. #SahmRule #EconSky

I appreciate this piece by @annielowrey.bsky.social But entire generations/communities exist in a near constant state of downward pressure, unable to find good enough jobs that can afford the most basic premises of a good life: a home and a family. GDP is growing, but the economy isn’t “good.”

Creating income decile @claudia-sahm.bsky.social like rules, shows that in the lead up to many recessions lower-income workers experience downturns prior to the aggregate designation and long before higher-income counterparts. #EconSky #SahmRule #Recession #Inequality

Americans are more productive than ever, but wages haven’t kept up—and the minimum wage has fallen far behind. It’s still $7.25, unchanged since 2009. Adjusted for inflation, it peaked in 1968. Meanwhile, tipped and exempt workers can still be paid poverty wages. #EconSky

Absolutely fantastic visualization by @home-economics.bsky.social, this is ~7 variables of 30 countries across 20 years designed in a way that feels quite clean.

🚨New Working Paper🚨 Economists Should Fix the Economy WP: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Economics maintains a general disposition against prescriptive work. But this is in stark contrast to the overwhelming view by the public that economist should be involved in policy. #EconSky

Incredible work! Somewhat depends on how you count the beans, but it’s worth noting that wages for Asian/White women is typically higher than Black/Hispanic men. Asian women in the aggregate have higher pay than white men. With Asian men’s pay above all categories. www.bls.gov/opub/reports...

🚨New Working Paper🚨 "Economists Should Fix the Economy" coming soon. I fielded a study, with NORC at the University of Chicago, that shows that 92% of Americans think economists should be involved in economic policy —they only disagree on how much. #EconSky

The ROI of ‘just paying a bit more in taxes’ seems preferable for billionaires than increasingly trying to influence American political and policy outcomes. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/u...

To add to the point @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social of @centeronbudget.bsky.social is making. My WP shows that you can test the "first fired" result, by putting Black unemployment into a @claudia-sahm.bsky.social like rule, and it shows exactly that. WP: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #EconSky

Over 10 years ago, long before George Floyd, I was doing a #BlackLivesMatter photo campaign. Facebook HQ invited me to photograph the staff. Back then, the view was controversial. At the grassroots level, no one had any idea there was any formal 501c3. A lot has changed since then.

With the #JobsDay data there are criticisms about the increase in unemployment, but labor-oriented recession indicators, like the @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule, Modified U6 #SahmRule, the #MichezRule, still do not point to a downturn. A bad or weakening economy is not the same thing as recession.

These two visualizations are the same data, just visualized differently. This comes from a report that I helped a professor with, aimed at giving the NY state legislature an update on the economic outlook. And is case-in-point why research communication is so important.

Did a quick redesign of the Friends of BLS site! Fantastic group. @aaronsojourner.org is so helpful, Bill Beach is hilarious, and Paul is so easy to work with. This is a project I believe in, a cause I support, and with my design background it was super easy for me to help. #EconSky

The outro to these videos for #TheGreenBookProject are my favorite. I love how the silhouette visuals work with the logos, and I love the “I’ve Been to the Mountaintop” line from the Promise Land speech by MLK.

On the train to #NationalGuard drill this weekend. Today, I ref’d a paper for Computational Econ, then edited a video for @justinwolfers.bsky.social Then redesigned the Friends of BLS site for @aaronsojourner.org. Then saw @trevondlogan.bsky.social post a video I made for #TheGreenBookProject!

@justinwolfers.bsky.social subscribes to my Substack. I think that means I win today. goodeconomics.substack.com #EconSky

Political betting markets have #HowardLutnick as the most likely to leave the White House —over his relationship with #Epstein, the most notorious child sex trafficker in American history. Lutnick is named ~100 times in the #EpsteinFiles. Trump is named 38k times.

This #BlackHistoryMonth, the #GreenBookProject invites you to explore the rich and complex history of Black travel during segregation. The Green Book Project, run by @trevondlogan.bsky.social serves as an archive and community project. greenbookproject.osu.edu #CommunityMap #EconSky

This is my favorite cover art so far. Read: goodeconomics.substack.com/p/the-unaffo... #EconSky