Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm.
Dome C near Concordia Station in Antarctica has recently been into the -80s degree celcius range, with reports of a minimum of -84.1 C on 18 July. Done C is 1100km inland from Australia's Davis station, up on the ice sheet at 3200m (10,000ft) elevation amrdc.ssec.wisc.edu/web_products...
Update: Hotham has re-broken its July maximum temperature record (set Saturday) today (Sunday). Has hit 11.7°C today. It’s pre-2026 July maximum temperature record was 8.3°C
The inversion is so strong it’s currently 10°C *colder*! in Omeo at the base of Mt Hotham! At 6am even stronger: Omeo was -5.3°C and Hotham 6.7°C, that’s 12°C warmer up the mountain! www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV...
And crazily it rarely dropped below +6°C overnight, within temperatures near 7 and even 8°C after midnight! www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV...
The coldest it has gotten to in the past 24 hours at Mt Hotham is 4.6°C at 3:28am today. The previous record July hot night is 2.7°C in July 1993. The July average minimum temperature is -3.7°C www.bom.gov.au/climate/aver...
Driving home from Mt Hotham yesterday ~3:30pm the car said 9C in Hotham Village, dropped to 6C going down the mountain, then about 9-10C at Harrietville and Bright (about 1300m lower than Hotham)
This was the view of the Mt Hotham Automatic Weather Station (thin pole to left of building) I took yesterday when the temperature was ‘only’ 8.3°C - just 0.4°C off the pre-2026 July maximum temperature record set in 1994. T-shirt skiing…
Cheesus… Mount Hotham has hit 11.1°C today!!! That’s 2.4°C *above* the pre-2026 July record!! Big slow moving high pressure systems creating large areas of descending & warming air hitting a radiation inversion = warm air trapped above the ground. Plus climate change… www.bom.gov.au/vic/observat...
Rainfall / Snowfall forecast for the next 8 days. Bugger… www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rai... And may not be much after that either.
Historically, this is southern Australia's coldest week of the year. For Melbourne, the long term average daytime max dips into the 12's. www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
Add 12th July 2026 to the Mt Hotham Village Chair opening dates...
"all five climate and ocean change threats [to the Great Barrier Reef] are ... almost certain likelihood and with moderate to catastrophic consequences." National Climate Risk Assessment - Marine Technical Report: publications.csiro.au/publications...
Think snow season is bad? Try 2020 lockdown season Hotham "average natural base depth for the season was 22 cm, and there were only 17 days with a base depth over 40cm. The resort had a base depth of zero until 2 July & returned to zero on 17 September" www.alpineresorts.vic.gov.au/__data/asset...
This figure is alarming and shocking. And likely an underestimate. Ultimately the 2026 numbers for the Euro heatwave will rise far up the rankings. Article from @drjeffmasters.bsky.social
Hopefully a wet enough June for inland agricultural areas if a dry spring comes about... eastern regions not so well set though. www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
And the strong El Nino of 1957... which was arguably the worst snow season of all
And comparing with 2015, 1997 and 1982 strong El Ninos at Spencers Creek in the Snowy Mountains www.snowyhydro.com.au/generation/l...
Compared the last 2 big El Nino events, the snow season is remarkably similar. 2026 (green line) vs 2015 and 1997 at Hotham. Season doesn't really get going until mid July. www.mthotham.com.au/mountain/con...
A great way of showing 'is it hot right now' in the UK... istheukhotrightnow.com (Spoiler alert: it is bloody hot even at 11pm!)
Great map showing just how unusual temperatures have been over the past week. Individual days would have exceeded the mean by much more www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Forecast doesn't look great either... www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocea...
Couldn't get a much worse Southern Annular Mode (SAM) at the moment when it comes to snowfall. Current value +3.8, good for snow is anything below about -1. (ie weather systems are far too south) Bugger. www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso...
If like me you are smack bang in the mid 50s dip in male friendship, txt a friend today! (I’ve done so already) melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/asset...
Relative Nino3.4 index rises 0.2 in a week, to +1.11... Crikey. www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso...
Noting that the June UK temperature record is 35.6°C recorded in Southampton in June 1976 and Camden Square in June 1957... note current London forecast for Wednesday. And Tuesday. And Thursday.
2026 Sea Surface Temperatures (60N-60S) slip quietly into hottest on record: 19 June 2026; +0.51C, 2024; +0.50, 2023; +0.49. pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
"Cheesus" Every Melbournian right now stepping out the front door, expecting to be hit by the chill of winter but instead experiencing a minimum temperature 2-3 degrees above the JANUARY or FEBRUARY average min (Jan av min temp = 14.3C, Feb 14.6C) www.baywx.com.au/melbtemp2.html
Just a 20C day in winter, no biggy.... (only 6 degC above normal) www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....