One Nation would likely become the largest party around 29%, but you'd expect them to likely win fewer seats than either Labor or Coalition for a particular primary vote.

I have taken the vote estimates from a leaked recent Redbridge/Accent state MRP, applied my own preference flows and then made a bunch of small changes to the primary votes to get a sense of how many seats you'd expect each party to win for x% One Nation vote.

I have also estimated 2PP and 2CP margins for Bean (vs IND) and Canberra (vs GRN). I estimate that Bean has become slightly more difficult for Jessie Price, but less so than the original draft boundaries, but honestly the changes are pretty small.

No idea but we live near the top of the top loop.

I name this peculiar type of contest in Nepean, where a party narrowly in front on 3CP wins easily on either 2CP because they are in the centre of two opposing rivals, "Three Stooges Syndrome", with apologies to the Simpsons.

The Liberal Party came fourth in 17 seats, and fifth in two others! They are sitting under 10% of the primary vote in about a third of the state.

Got to wear my “15 minute cities” shirt from @tomflood.bsky.social

It’s Ride2School Day today. My son’s school encouraged kids to ride to school and decorate their bikes. We all rode to school this morning, and the school hall was converted into a parking lot for bikes and scooters.

I've now added my estimates of how the 2025 federal results would have played out on the new boundaries. Read more at the liveblog.

Under CPV that final choice can end up like this.

It's great to have this complete data, although this picture is mostly pretty similar to when I calculated how IND 3CP flowed in the 2PP contest. Been obvious for a while that teal voters are pretty clearly left-leaning www.tallyroom.com.au/60797

In this clip, we discuss the geography of the One Nation vote and how Labor is still in an election-winning position.

I'm putting together a few short clips from the podcast and putting them up on Instagram, here is the first one.

As for the Senate, Brandis claims the Greens would be the main beneficiaries, but this couldn’t be more wrong. The Greens at the moment are over-represented in the Senate. Expanding to 14 or 16 senators would just solidify their current seats. Most seats would go to Labor, the Coaltion or One Nation

There seems to be a relationship with the proportion of voters moving to a new seat being less when the scale of the redistribution is bigger, but also the last two cycles have seen the most conservative map-drawing. In the blog post I run through a few examples.

Just added a primary vote map.

I've now added a 2CP booth map to my liveblog.

I was on ABC Radio Sydney this afternoon with @domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol

In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

Here's a version with captions.

I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

my kid's soccer club, and two of the clubs they've played against this season.

George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes. Final seat count: -14 Liberal -10 Labor -5 Greens -1 Shooters -5 Independents

Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.

Is it possible that Labor, after polling a record low vote and winning barely a quarter of seats, could form government? Or could they have no choice but to form government? Ben discussed this topic with @cmonnox.bsky.social and @kevinbonham.bsky.social last week on the podcast #politas #tasvotes

For this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, we discuss the tendency in Tasmanian elections for anti-hung parliament voters to swing behind whoever can win a majority, and whether it had an effect in 2025. #tasvotes #politas

Last Friday (day before the election) I did an interview with ABC Radio Hobart about Votes at 16. Take a listen. Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.

On this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, Ben discussed the inclusion of former federal MPs and other big names who aren't sitting state MPs on the major party tickets in the Tasmanian election, and how it will likely push out some incumbent MPs. #tasvotes www.tallyroom.com.au/60946