Justin Fox

@byjustinfox

Columnist @opinion.bloomberg.com‬. Opinions mine, charts property of Bloomberg LP (although you are of course welcome to share them).

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Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 1d

To be clear this is not some groundbreaking discovery I have made here. @jdlahart.bsky.social wrote about it in May: www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

I am not the first person (or even the first journalist named Justin) to note that falling labor force participation among non-grads is putting downward pressure on their unemployment rate and probably explains most of the shrinking of the young adult education-unemployment gap. But I don’t sense that this message has really broken through yet.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 1d

... so it seems like unemployment rates for grads and non grads have been coming closer together mainly because of non-grads leaving the labor force (meaning they neither have a job nor are looking for one) and thus not being counted as unemployed. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing the differences between labor force participation rates and unemployment rates for US college graduates and non-graduates ages 25-29. The former gap has been growing over the past decade while the latter shrinks.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 1d

The gap between the unemployment rates for young college grads and non-grads has been shrinking, leading to much talk about the declining value of a college degree. But labor force participation has been rising for college grads and falling for non-grads ... www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing labor force participation rates for US college graduates and non-grads ages 25 to 29. The former averaged 89.4% in the 12 months ending in June, and is higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. The latter averaged 78.7%, and is lower than before the pandemic.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 1d

Why gas prices were down in the July CPI, which is supposed to reflect average prices over the course of the month, even though they rose in July. (Data from the US Energy Information Administration)

Table showing weekly US gas prices:

Jun 01, 2026 4.305
Jun 08, 2026 4.146
Jun 15, 2026 4.052
Jun 22, 2026 3.914
Jun 29, 2026 3.831
Jul 06, 2026 3.777
Jul 13, 2026 3.855
Jul 20, 2026 4.001
Jul 27, 2026 4.096
Aug 03, 2026 4.079

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 10d

Another fun chart. Gift link to column with lots more: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing increase in number of "public relations specialists" in the US from 91,870 in 1997 to 283,380 in 2025 and decrease in number of "news analysts, reporters and journalists" from 63,330 to 39,250.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 11d

New York has not experienced a boom in journalism employment over the past quarter century. The number of news analysts, reporters and journalists there appears to be up just slightly, and the 2000 figure may be an undercount. But most other big US cities have seen their numbers collapse.

Table showing US metro areas with 500 or more journalists in 2000 and 2025. There were 20 in 2000, 10 in 2025. Philadelphia went from 1,800 in 2000 to 460 in 2025. Chicago from 1,700 to 660.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 11d

Nearly 20% of US "news analysts, reporters and journalists" are in the New York and DC metro areas, up from a little over 10% a quarter century ago. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing percentage of US news analysts, reporters and journalists ("news analysts, reporters and correspondents" before 2019) who are in the New York and DC metro areas. In 2000 it was 7.7% and 3.9%, respectively. In 2025 13.7% and 6.1%.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· 22d

The kind of book review that catches my attention (from a great new @kedseconomist.com column on Social Security) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Former Social Security Commissioner Bob Ball, a leader of the splinter negotiation group, wrote extensively about these events in his book "The Greenspan Commission: What Really Happened." (For what it’s worth, it’s not as boring as the title might indicate.) Ball and others have stressed that it wasn’t a commission or bipartisan spirit that saved Social Security. It was a ticking clock. By the time Congress finally passed reform legislation, Social Security had weeks left before automatic benefit cuts kicked in.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Jul 6

Hmmm

Adjacent headlines in a San Francisco Chronicle email: 1. "Cricket is booming in this Bay Area suburb — sparking a turf war in youth sports" 2. "These BART parking lots are nearly empty. Could they be put to better use?"

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Jun 10

Where it all began (from the New York Post of Oct. 26, 1809), via NYS Historic Newspapers www.nyshistoricnewspapers.org?a=is&oid=nep...

DISTRESSING
Left his lodgings some time since, and has not since been heard of, a small elderly gentleman, dressed in an old black coat and cocked hat, by the name of KNICKERBOCKER. As there are some reasons for believing he is not entirely in his right mind, and as great anxiety is entertained about him, any information concerning him left either at the Columbian Hotel, Mulberry street, or at the Office of this paper will be thankfully received.
P.S. Printers of Newspapers would be advancing the cause of humanity, in giving an insertion to the above.
Oct. 26

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 26

The employment numbers for 65 and older are up because they revised the population numbers upwards (the 16-24 decline may be real though)

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 21

As intended, President Trump's policies are incentivizing Americans to stay home and read books www.bls.gov/opub/ted/202...

US Bureau of Labor Statistics chart showing 12-month change in the consumer price index for selected categories including gasoline (up 28.4%), airline fares (up 20.7%), and recreational books (down 6.5%)

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 18

And no this isn't just about the NYPD classifying more assaults as felonies, Misdemeanor assaults and harassment are up too. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing numbers of reported felony assaults, misdemeanor assaults, and harassment in New York City since 2006. All are up substantially since the pandemic.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 18

Serious assaults are on the decline in most of the US, but not in NYC (new column with gift link) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing a nearly 50% increase since 2018 (most of which has occurred since 2021) in felony assaults in New York City. There was an assault increase in other cities tracked by the Real-Time Crime Index but it topped out not much above 20% and is now approaching zero.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 18

Whoops, fixed the chart

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 18

Something must be done about garbanzo volatility

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· May 4

US gasoline consumption was falling before the Hormuz shutdown (from a new column on what comes after the gas tax) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing US gasoline consumption since 1945. As of January it was lower than before the pandemic, and falling

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 22

Definitely a better-looking chart

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 16

Throw in real estate, and the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) share of GDP did (barely) hit an all-time record in 2025. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) share of US GDP rising from 10.3% in 1947 to 21.7% in 2025.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 16

The financial sector's share of US GDP was (1) near an all-time record in 2025 but (2) hasn't risen much since the early 2000s after big gains in the 1980s and 1990s. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing the finance and insurance share of US GDP rising from 2.4% in 1947 to 8% in 2020 and 7.9% last year.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 7

So while it's probably not true that the top 10% account for 45.8% of consumer spending it's also probably not true that they account for only 22.9% (which is what the BLS survey says). And the BLS finding that the top 20%'s share of spending has been flat for decades seems pretty suspect.

Chart showing the top 20%'s share of consumer spending since 1989 as estimated by Moody's Analytics from Federal Reserve data and measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (the BLS data series on the top 10%'s share only goes back to 2014 which is why I'm showing the top 20% here). The Moody's estimates show an increase from around 49% in the early 1990s to nearly 60% last year; the BLS survey shows it going from about 38% in the early 1990s to about 38% in 2024.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 7

Higher-income Americans seem to be especially wary of responding to the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. Its estimates of the share of *income* going to the top 20% are much lower and have risen much less through the decades than those from other sources. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing share of pretax income going to the top 20% as estimated by the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, the Congressional Budget Office, the World Inequality Database and the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances. The BLS survey shows a much lower and flatter trajectory than the other sources.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 7

It's a backwards way of calculating consumer spending, and one shouldn't expect it to be super accurate. But the main direct measure we have of consumer spending by income, the @usbls.bsky.social Consumer Expenditure Survey, has lots of issues of its own. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Table comparing spending as measured by the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey and the BEA Personal Consumption Expenditures estimates. Certain spending categories, such as alcoholic beverages and gambling losses, are massively underreported in the BLS survey.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 7

I took a closer look at that controversial Moody's Analytics statistic attributing nearly 50% of consumer spending to the top 10% of the income distribution (after some revisions last year, the percentage is currently 45.8%). Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing Moody's Analytics estimate, based on Federal Reserve survey and financial accounts data, of the share of consumer spending attributable to the top 10% of the income distribution. In 2025 it was 45.8%, up from 36.1% in 1990 and 39.8% in 2010.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 1

Morrill, who later became Treasury Secretary, was replying to a speech by Garrett Davis of Kentucky, who argued that US citizenship was only for white people. Here's what Morrill had to say about that in particular. archive.org/details/cong...

But, Mr. President, it is said that this amendment raises the general question of the antagonism of the races, which we are told is a well-established fact. It is said that no rational man, no intelligent legislator or statesman should ever act without reference to that grand historical fact; and the Senator from Pennsylvania [Mr. Cowan] on a former occasion asserted that this Government, that American society, had been established here upon the principle of the exclusion, as he termed it, of the inferior and the barbarian races. Mr. President, I deny that proposition as a historical fact. There is nothing more inaccurate. No proposition could possibly be made here or anywhere else more inaccurate than to say that American society, either civil or political, was formed in the interest of any race or class. Sir, the history of the country does not bear out the statement of the honorable Senator from Pennsylvania. Was not America said to be the land of refuge? Has it not been since the earliest period held up as an asylum for the oppressed of all nations? Hither, allow me to ask, have not all the peoples of the nations of the earth come for an asylum and for refuge? All the nations of the earth and all the varieties of the races of the nations of the earth have gathered here. In the early settlements of the country, the Irish, the French, the Swede, the Turk, the Italian, the Moor, and so I might enumerate all the races and all the variety of races, came here, and it is a fundamental mistake to suppose that settlement was begun here in the interests of any class or condition or race or interest. This western continent was looked to as an asylum for the oppressed of all nations and of all races. Hither all nations and all races have come. Here, sir, upon the grand plane of republican democratic liberty, they have undertaken to work out the great problem of man's capacity for self-government without stint or limit.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Apr 1

Some birthright citizenship commentary from 1866 (by US Senator Lot Morrill of Maine during the Senate debates over the 14th Amendment) archive.org/details/cong...

As matter of law, does anybody deny here or anywhere that the native born is a citizen, and a citizen by virtue of his birth alone? The honorable Senator from Kentucky has vexed himself somewhat I think with the problem of the naturalization of American citizens. As he reads it, only foreigners can be naturalized, or, in other words, can become citizens; and upon his assumption, four million men and women in this country are outside not only of naturalization, not only of citizenship, but outside of the possibility of citizenship. Sir, he has forgotten the grand principle both of nature and nations, both of law and politics, that birth gives citizenship of itself. This is the fundamental principle running through all modern politics both in this country and in Europe. Everywhere where the principles of law have been recognized at all, birth by its inherent energy and force gives citizenship. Therefore the founders of this Government made no provision— of coarse they made none — for the naturalization of natural-born citizens. The Constitution speaks of "natural born," and speaks of them as citizens in contradistinction from those who are alien to us. Therefore, sir, this amendment, although it is a grand enunciation, although it is a lofty and sublime declaration, has no force or efficiency as an enactment. I hail it and accept it simply as a declaration.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Mar 31

Break it down by age and things get really interesting www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing different historical patterns in institutionalization by age group. The share of the US population in institutional group quarters peaked in 1920 for those under 18, in 2000 for ages 18-34, 1940 for 35-64, and 1980 for 65 and older

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Mar 31

Institutionalization in the US, the long view (that last big jump in 1980s and 1990s was the incarceration boom, but earlier increases were more about psychiatric institutions, homes for the developmentally disabled, orphanages, etc.). Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Chart showing the percentage of the US population living in institutional group quarters. It rose throughout the 20th century, peaked at 1.45% in 2000, and as of 2024 was back down to 1.07%

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Mar 31

One of my favorite exchanges from the 1866 birthright citizenship debates (between US Senators Lyman Trumbull of Illinois, the Judiciary Committee chairman and primary author of the 13th Amendment, and Edgar Cowan of Pennsylvania) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Mr. TRUMBULL. I should like to inquire of my friend from Pennsylvania, if the children of Chinese now born in this country are not citizens?

Mr. COWAN. I think not.

Mr. TRUMBULL. I understand that under the naturalization laws the children who are born here of parents who have not been naturalized are citizens. That is the law, as I understand it, at the present time. Is not the child born in this country of German parents a citizen? I am afraid we have got very few citizens in some of the counties of good old Pennsylvania if the children born of German parents are not citizens.

Mr. COWAN. The honorable Senator assumes that which is not the fact. The children of German parents are citizens; but Germans are not Chinese; Germans are not Australians, nor Hottentots, nor anything of the kind. That is the fallacy of his argument.

Mr. TRUMBULL. If the Senator from Pennsylvania will show me in the law any distinction made between the children of German parents and the children of Asiatic parents, I might be able to appreciate the point which he makes; but the law makes no such distinction; and the child of an Asiatic is just as much a citizen as the child of a European.

Justin Fox@byjustinfox· Mar 31

The streetcar boomlet in historical perspective (gift link) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...