Atlanta Fed

@atlantafed

The Atlanta Fed serves the Sixth Federal Reserve District: AL, FL, GA and parts of LA, MS and TN. We foster a healthy economy and financial stability. We’re apolitical and decentralized to conduct monetary policy that’s in the best interest of the economy.

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Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· 28d

When does monetary policy move the inflation expectations of households? The authors find monetary policy news shifts beliefs primarily among attentive households, while others barely respond: atlfed.org/4vYAkGJ.

Image showing the paper's title, "Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission to Household Beliefs," and its authors, Jaemin Jeong, Eunseong Ma, and Choongryul Yang

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· 28d

While there is a broad-based slowing among some the near-term measures of underlying CPI inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/4vZJrHd

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· 28d

July 14: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating BLS data in addition to updated nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed and Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4hdyGwp

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· 28d

The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 0.8% (on an annualized basis) in June, following a 2.9% increase in May. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 2.8%. atlfed.org/4w56fph

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· 29d

A new Policy Hub paper maintains that elevated and persistent inflation makes the economy more vulnerable to cost-push shocks. The author concludes that low and stable inflation is not just a goal of monetary policymakers but is also a macroeconomic stabilizer: atlfed.org/4wxBKYO.

Image showing paper title, "High and Volatile Inflation Begets a More Volatile Business Cycle," and the author, Andres Blanco

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· 29d

Investment? Expansion? Price changes? How might tariff refunds affect recipient firms? A new Policy Hub: Macroblog post considers these questions and finds that their impact would vary considerably across firms. atlfed.org/4pc86Wq.

Title of paper, "The Impact of Tariff Refunds on Business Activity," with headshots of authors: Simon Fuchs, Veronika Penciakova, and Roberto Robatto.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 9

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 3.6% in June from 3.5% the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker edged up to 3.4% in June from 3.3% in May, while the Tracker for those changing jobs increased to 4.1% from 3.7% in May. atlfed.org/4w0RgN4

Line chart showing Wage Growth at 3.6% in May.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 9

The Atlanta Fed’s Unemployment Claims Monitor (UCM) provides regular insights of the US labor force. In the first week of July 2026, there were approximately 215,000 initial unemployment claims nationally on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 8

On July 8, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 1.3%:atlfed.org/4yaodI3. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/43UNhVO.

Line chart showing GDPNow estimate at 1.3%.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 7

On July 7, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 1.4%:atlfed.org/3QWKRmM. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/43UNhVO.

Line chart showing GDPNow estimate at 1.4%.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 6

Authors of this paper show that high-skill workers who joined the ICT sector during the late 1990s tech boom saw sizeable long-term earnings losses, which stem from accelerated skill obsolescence rather than worker selection or the later bust in the ICT sector: atlfed.org/4wNRR4L.

Image showing the authors of "Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation," Johan Hombert and Adrien Matray

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 6

July 6: We've updated our Market Probability Tracker following @usbls.bsky.social release of July’s #employment report. View the Atlanta Fed update online now: atlfed.org/3Tjs0CW

Line chart showing probability of rate hike or rate cut

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 4

From all of us at the Atlanta Fed, we wish you a safe and happy Independence Day! #4thofJuly #IndependenceDay

Waving american flag against a backdrop of the Atlanta Fed building. Text reads United States of America 250th anniversary.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 2

July 2: We've updated our #LaborMarket spider chart to reflect June data from @usbls.bsky.social: atlfed.org/4p0y3bj

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 2

July 2: We've updated our Jobs Calculator to reflect June data from @usbls.bsky.social. How was the #unemployment rate outlook affected? View the Atlanta Fed's data: atlfed.org/4eQpZa1

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 2

Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2%) changed little in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. atlfed.org/4fgMQLK

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 1

After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.5% to 6.5%, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports decreased from -0.59% to -1.62%.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jul 1

On July 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 1.2%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

LIne chart showing GDPNow estimate at 1.2%

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 30

Rising housing prices and a dearth of affordable homes are among the factors behind a regional housing market largely stuck in neutral. An Atlanta Fed housing expert untangles the dynamics at work in this episode of the Economy Matters podcast: atlfed.org/447MroN.

Image of the Atlanta Fed’s Dominic Purviance saying, "I think what’s safe to say is that most markets across the country are not accelerating."

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 30

June 30: View our updated #LaborMarket spider chart with recent JOLTS data: atlfed.org/4vEH6RT

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 30

Policy Hub examines the effect of pandemic-era, supply-chain disruptions on consumer prices. Delivery shortfalls squeezed product availability, pushing up prices. Competitive spillover amplified the pass-through of firm-level shocks and led to price increases: atlfed.org/4gKVXFI.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 29

The Atlanta Fed is partnering with @richmondfed.bsky.social for the Investing in Rural America Conference (Sept 30–Oct 2). Join us in Asheville to explore how rural places build economic resilience. Register here: atlfed.org/4vCIPqO. #InvestRuralUSA

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 25

While there is a broad-based slowing among some of the near-term measures of underlying PCE inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/44ryMsK

Chart showing Atlanta Fed's 06-25-26 updated Underlying Inflation Dashboard

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 25

Economists seek to understand present-day inflation, but they also want to know where people expect inflation to go in the future. This article examines reasons behind research into inflation expectations. atlfed.org/4w5pTAU.

The copy on the image reads: "As price stability is half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, researchers employ an array of tools to better understand inflation expectations."

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 25

The Federal Reserve System's 2026 Small Business Credit Survey report is now available. Small businesses in the Southeast show resilience amid rising costs and cash‑flow strains. Despite challenges, many small business owners remain optimistic. Read more here: atlfed.org/4xO3nhH.

Title reads, "How are small businesses doing in the southeast? A look at the latest survey results" Headshots of authors Mary Hirt and Aaliyah Price.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 25

June 25: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis in addition to updated nowcasts from the @clevelandfed.bsky.social and Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4uSHZVX.

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 25

Policy Hub examines the effect of pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions on consumer prices. Delivery shortfalls squeezed product availability, pushing up prices. Competitive spillover amplified the pass-through of firm-level shocks and led to wider price increases. atlfed.org/4gbqk8h

Image showing the paper title, "The Price of Delay: Supply Disruptions, Product Availability, and Strategic Pricing during the Pandemic," and the authors, Salomé Baslandze and Simon Fuchs

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 25

On June 25, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 2.5%: atlfed.org/3QpV2jv. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/43UNhVO.

Line chart showing the Atlanta Fed's 06-25-26 GDPNow estimate at 2.5%

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 24

For many workers, economic survival now outweighs mobility. The Fed’s latest Worker Perspectives research shows LMI workers are facing stretched budgets, AI‑driven hiring barriers, and delayed education goals. Explore more findings in the full report: atlfed.org/4eEquT4.

Text that reads: "When every dollar counts: Inside the economic struggles of workers who earn low to moderate incomes."

Atlanta Fed@atlantafed· Jun 24

Business execs expect wages to grow at about the same rate over the next year as they did last year. atlfed.org/43UKpYZ