Palma Polyak

@palmapolyak

Senior Researcher @ Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne | IPE & Geoeconomics | Trade imbalances 🚢 & EV battery value chains 🔋

1.453 Folgt7.556 Follower354 Posts

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Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· 5d

When in doubt, back to Blyth.

A copy of Mark Blyth’s Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea held in my hand in the morning.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· 13d

"The exchange rate is a symptom, not the disease." 👏 www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· 28d

Fun.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· 28d

Wow… What on Earth is BYD’s rationale in signing Orban’s former foreign minister—a literal Russian asset—as an executive? His credibility in Europe is sub-zero. He may still face charges at home. Is BYD planning to conquer the Russian market now that they’re fighting each other at the gas pumps? ⛽️

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jul 7

The Hungarian public broadcaster, one of the nastiest propaganda mouthpieces under Orban, just went dark & apologized for years of lying. 📺 Here’s to brighter days. 444.hu/2026/07/07/b...

On Tuesday afternoon, the M1 news channel went dark, and the following text appeared in white on a black background:

“Public media cannot lie. We apologize for doing so for so many years! Public media is now transforming itself to be independent and credible in the future. News service is temporarily suspended. Stay tuned!”

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jul 6

Periodic reminder: we’re living in the Erling Haaland era.

Gabriel Magalhães is left dejected after Erling Haaland heads Norway into a 79th-minute lead.
Photograph: Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Getty Images. Source: Guardian Football

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jul 5

One last hurray against the corrupt autocrats of the world, boys 🇧🇪💪

De Bruyne & Lukaku’s iconic goal celebration

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jun 30

Chin up, Germany. You know what to do.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jun 30

5.55 in Brussels. How did they get in their cars in 30 seconds?

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jun 29

My sleep schedule is in your mighty hands, Captain. Please save me from being woken up by relentless Moroccan car honking at 5am

🎶 he’s Virgil van Dijk, he’s Virgil van Dijk

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Jun 2

Fully share the conclusion about the slim chances of EUR/RMB—but I recently learned from @helene-rey.bsky.social that persistent CA deficits are *not* a prerequisite for currency internationalization. The US is in fact "the banker of the world", central in gross positions www.ft.com/content/5bc0...

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/.
https://www.ft.com/content/5bc02699-3eda-465b-bd73-f5e8b9573ae8

Equally persistent is the misunderstanding that the international role of the dollar requires the US to run sustained current account deficits. In reality, global dollar liquidity is supported by the vast stock of US Treasuries and other safe-dollar assets held across the world. When foreign investors hold US Treasuries, they are recorded as gross external liabilities of the US but they are not necessarily linked to net financial flows captured in the current account.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· May 16

Europeans vs the rest of social media on any given #Eurovision night BANGARANGA 💃🏻🕺❤️🇪🇺

meme/photo of Taron Egerton sitting next to Richard Madden in a car — where one is dressed very plainly and the other is in this huge flamboyant pink feather outfit

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· May 9

Truly historic & moving scenes from the inaugural session of the Hungarian Parliament. A children’s tambura band from a tiny village playing a folk song often described as the unofficial Roma anthem. MPs were tearing up & so were many more of us watching. After all those years of hate. 🎥 telex.hu

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· May 9

Watching our nation’s two leaders. 🇭🇺

Prime Minister Peter Magyar holds his inaugural speech while Dominik Szoboszlai is taking a free-kick

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· May 9

After 12 years, the EU flag is back on Hungary’s Parliament building — the new Speaker’s very first decision. A happy Schuman Day indeed.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 27

Markets are like Wile E. Coyote afraid to look down at the abyss, as @katemac.bsky.social & @70sbachchan.bsky.social said a month ago www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war... The IMF forecasted the abyss for the EU. www.imf.org/en/blogs/art...

A two-panel chart titled “EU growth falls and inflation rises in severe war scenario.”

On the left, a line chart shows real GDP growth (percent) from 2025 to 2027 under three scenarios: pre–Middle East war (gray), reference (blue), and severe scenario (red). All start around 1.6% in 2025. By 2026, the red line drops sharply to about 0.5%, while the blue line dips modestly (around 1.3%) and the gray line stays close to 1.5%. In 2027, the red line recovers slightly but remains well below the others.

On the right, a line chart shows consumer price inflation (percent) over the same period. All start near 2.5% in 2025. By 2026, inflation rises sharply in the severe scenario (around 3.9%) and continues climbing to about 4.6% in 2027. The reference scenario increases slightly in 2026 then declines, while the pre-war scenario trends slightly downward toward about 2.1%.

Source noted at the bottom: IMF, World Economic Outlook database and staff calculations.

A tweet by Aaron Jakes reads: “Every day for the past month has felt like this. At some point, the whole capitalist world-system is going to look down. Seems like we may be getting closer to that moment.”
Below the text is a cartoon image of Wile E. Coyote suspended midair just past the edge of a cliff, legs still running as if on solid ground, with the canyon visible below—capturing the moment before he realizes he’s about to fall.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 26

Make Byzantium Great Again cc @70sbachchan.bsky.social

1984 calendar meme with the lady saying "the empire is at war with Persia and the Pope" and the calendar says January 1054

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 23

Life achievement unlocked 🔓 My research is featured in @alanbeattie.bsky.social's Trade Secrets column! The EU "Commission’s repeated attempts to run a coherent green industrial strategy are showing few results" www.ft.com/content/f082... ...is what I find in my analysis too tinyurl.com/2sddm8e8

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

9/ The stakes extend far beyond the EU. @70sbachchan.bsky.social, @mathiaslarsen.bsky.social & others point out: Chinese clean-tech FDI is expanding abroad at break-neck speed (good news for net zero.) But the key question is how host countries can benefit. www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/t...

These tensions extend far beyond Europe. As technologically dominant East Asian firms—particularly from China—drive the global expansion of clean-tech manufacturing (Xue & Larsen, 2026), governments across the Global North and South confront a shared dilemma: how to attract strategic investment without locking themselves into dependent positions (Sahay, 2026). Long analyzed in debates on extractivism and postcolonial resource politics (Alami et al., Citation2025; Riofrancos, Citation2017), as well as dependent development (Amsden, Citation1989; Nölke & Vliegenthart, Citation2009)—these conflicts have now migrated into the industrial core. Read in this light, Europe’s battery rollout serves as a cautionary case for green industrialization under conditions of asymmetric technological power, illustrating how difficult it is for latecomers to secure a favorable position in an emerging global ‘green division of labor’ (Lachapelle et al., Citation2017) dominated by China. Europe’s internal divisions erode its capacity to act strategically in this global scramble.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

8/ The few European champions still standing (PowerCo, Verkor, ACC) have something in common. They are tied to carmakers with not only strong state ties, but direct *state ownership* — allowing for more patient demand & long-term commitments. Without that, the high road is very hard to sustain.

https://sifted.eu/articles/verkor-northvolt-gigafactory
Headline from SIFTED
Analysis
April 3, 2025
Can French gigafactory Verkor avoid Northvolt’s fate?
With the collapse of Swedish gigafactory Northvolt, all eyes are now on France’s Verkor
Freya Pratty and Daphné Leprince-Ringuet
7 min read

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

7/ There is a clear risk gap between domestic and foreign battery projects in the EU. Foreign-led projects dominate what gets built. Domestic ones are far more likely to be high-risk or cancelled. (Unsurprisingly, projects without subsidies are also much more likely to stall.)

Horizontal bar chart titled “There is a risk gap between domestic and foreign projects.” It shows the share of EU battery manufacturing capacity by project risk status (online, low risk, high risk, cancelled), split between domestic and foreign firms.
Foreign firms dominate operational capacity, accounting for 84.8% of projects that are online (vs. 15.2% domestic) and 65.2% of low-risk projects (vs. 34.8% domestic).
The gap narrows among high-risk projects, where foreign firms hold 56.1% and domestic firms 43.9%.
Among cancelled projects, the pattern reverses: domestic projects account for 86.0% of cancellations, compared to 14.0% for foreign firms.
Overall, the chart highlights that foreign-led projects are more likely to reach completion, while domestic projects are disproportionately represented among stalled or cancelled investments.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

6/ So far, low-road pathways dominate, with Hungary & Poland hosting 80% of online capacities. Germany combines low-road & high-road elements. France is the closest to a consistent high-road approach, but fiscal & viability risks loom large. Sweden’s (1st) high-road attempt collapsed with Northvolt.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

5/ The clean-tech roll-out is often narrated as a trilemma between climate neutrality, competitiveness & strategic autonomy. But this is too neat. Each of these goals is a bundle of sub-goals, and the trade-offs multiply as they are operationalized. We're closer to a fractal geometry of compromises

$Slide titled “Not a trilemma – a fractal geometry of compromises.” On the left is a triangle labeled at the corners “Climate neutrality” (top), “Industrial competitiveness” (bottom left), and “Strategic autonomy” (bottom right), representing the standard trilemma. On the right is a table comparing “Minimalist path (Subversion risk)” and “Maximalist path (Viability risk)” across three dimensions. In the ecological trade-off, the minimalist path involves rapid rollout on fossil-heavy grids with weakened environmental standards, while the maximalist path emphasizes sustainable production with low-carbon inputs and minimal local harm. In the late development trade-off, the minimalist path delivers jobs and output via weakly conditioned, low value-added foreign direct investment from East Asian firms, while the maximalist path focuses on long-term domestic capabilities through national champions and/or disciplined FDI. In the geopolitical trade-off, the minimalist path achieves physical localization of production but ignores ownership and control, while the maximalist path reduces geopolitical exposure through domestic ownership and alignment.$

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

4/ The 2 cases point to a broader problem. Europe has high-road ambitions, but this is costly & risky & undercut by the low-road strategies within the same single market. EU subsidy policy is strikingly incoherent: member states simultaneously fund EU champions & their foreign competitors.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

3/ Contrast this with Northvolt, Europe's battery poster-child & a very different model: cleaner production, domestic ownership, higher value capture. Yet it collapsed, as buyers like BMW shifted to cheaper suppliers (e.g. in Hungary.) The high-road pathway proved much harder to sustain.

Financial Times headline: "There was so much promise": How Northvolt tumbled into bankruptcy

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

2/ Take Hungary. Orbán set out to turn it into a “battery superpower”, leading the pack in committed investment. But rapid rollout brought ecological devastation, low quality jobs & domestic backlash. Russian gas-fueled, Chinese-owned factories were still praised by the EU as "strategic autonomy."

Planned 2030 battery manufacturing capacities by company HQ
announced gigafactory projects (GWh/a, maximum capacities).
Hungary leading before Germany.

Hungary's FORMER autocratic leader Viktor Orbán in 2022, announcing plans to turn the country into a "battery superpower".

Man with "STOP BATTERY FACTORY" sign in Debrecen, at one of the protests against CATL's planned factory.

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 21

There's a global race to secure EV battery gigafactories & reduce reliance on China. But not all clean-tech projects are created equal. Some generate good jobs & domestic capacities, others produce ecological harm & low value-added enclaves. New paper & thread 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 13

This is Milán Rózsa, the bravest LGBTQ+ voice Hungary has ever had & the brightest light in our activist circles. We lost him to suicide in 2014. Now the darkness has lifted, if only slightly & I so badly wish he were here to see it.

Milán Rózsa (1988-2014), Hungarian human rights activist

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 13

Budapest yesterday. I can’t stop crying 😭 🎥 444.hu youtu.be/_G-yTdKz0QQ?...

Palma Polyak@palmapolyak· Apr 12

ARE WE DREAMING??? 😭😭😭